Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-09-11

Top developments

Arabica Hits 10-Week Low on Record Brazil Exports

Arabica coffee futures fell to a 10-week low on September 11, pressured by a favorable outlook for the next crop and immediate supply pressures from Brazil. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) and local bodies confirmed that Brazil’s coffee exports in August reached a record 4.155 million 60-kg bags, generating $1.331 billion in revenue, a 19.8% year-on-year increase. This surge in supply, combined with drier weather accelerating the harvest pace, weighed heavily on ICE settlements, with September arabica closing lower as traders digested the robust export data.

Raw Sugar Climbs to 16-Month High

While coffee struggled, raw sugar futures continued their bullish trend, reaching a 16-month high earlier in the week before stabilizing. The rally is supported by tight global supplies and concerns over Indian export policies, alongside a shift in the sugar-to-ethanol mix in Brazil’s Center-South region. On September 11, sugar prices remained elevated, contrasting sharply with the bearish sentiment in the coffee complex.

1 sources

moneytimes.com.br

moneytimes.com.br

Côte d’Ivoire Maintains Cocoa Farmgate Price at 1,200 FCFA

The Ivorian government officially confirmed that the guaranteed farmgate price for cocoa will remain at 1,200 FCFA per kilogram for the main 2026/27 campaign, which began on September 1. The decision, announced by Agriculture Minister Bruno Nabagné Koné during the National Cocoa and Chocolate Days, also set the coffee farmgate price at 1,300 FCFA/kg. This flat pricing strategy aims to maintain producer income stability despite significant fluctuations in international ICE cocoa prices, which hovered around $5,842/tonne in early September.

Cotton Pressured by Private Crop Estimates

Cotton futures traded lower in early September as market participants reacted to private production estimates released ahead of the upcoming USDA reports. The softness in cotton settlements reflects growing expectations of a larger global supply, particularly from key producing regions, offsetting some of the tightness seen in other soft commodities.

Local view

In Brazil, local media highlighted the divergence between record export volumes and falling domestic prices. Globo Rural reported that the increased supply of coffee from Brazil drove prices down in New York, noting that while August exports were historic, the domestic saca price for arabica averaged R$1,722.53 in early September, a 23% drop compared to the previous year. Farmers are facing margin compression as the harvest wraps up and quality assessments remain mixed.

In Vietnam, domestic robusta prices in the Central Highlands (Tây Nguyên) saw slight fluctuations but generally held steady around 95,000–95,800 VND/kg as of September 11. Local outlets like Thời báo Tài chính Việt Nam noted that while international London robusta contracts showed mixed moves, domestic farmers were less aggressive in selling, waiting for clearer signals from the upcoming harvest season.

Context & numbers

• Brazil August Exports: 4.155 million bags (record for August), up 19.8% YoY in revenue.
• ICE Arabica: Hit a 10-week low on Sept 11; recently traded near $2.95/lb after recovering slightly from lows.
• ICE Cocoa: Traded at ~$5,842/tonne on Sept 10, down 1.82% day-on-day but up 3.34% over the past month.
• Vietnam Domestic Robusta: 95,000–95,800 VND/kg in Central Highlands (Sept 11).
• Ivory Coast Farmgate Prices: Cocoa 1,200 FCFA/kg; Coffee 1,300 FCFA/kg for 2026/27.

On the radar

• USDA Crop Reports: Traders are bracing for the official USDA supply and demand data releases later this month, which will confirm or challenge the private estimates that have been pressuring cotton and grain markets.
• Vietnam Harvest Start: The 2026/27 Vietnamese robusta harvest is imminent. Market attention will shift to the pace of picking and initial quality grades in Đắk Lắk and Lâm Đồng provinces, which could impact London robusta spreads.
• Indian Sugar Policy: Continued monitoring of India's ethanol diversion policies and potential export restrictions remains critical for sugar price direction, given the commodity's recent multi-month highs.