Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-09-04
Coffee prices slid to multi-month lows this week as Brazil’s harvest accelerated and certified stocks hit historic lows, while raw sugar surged to a 16-month high on supply concerns. Meanwhile, Côte d’Ivoire officially maintained its farmer cocoa price at 1,200 FCFA/kg for the 2026/27 campaign, sparking debate over harvest incentives and state stock buybacks.
Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-09-04
Top developments
Coffee Harvest Acceleration Drives Prices to Multi-Month Lows
On September 3-4, December arabica coffee (KCZ26) dropped over 3.7% to a five-week low, while November robusta (RMX26) fell to a 2.75-month low, driven by favorable weather in Brazil that accelerated the coffee harvest. The acceleration of Brazilian supply, combined with forecasts of continued dry weather, has pressured settlements despite ICE-certified arabica stocks falling to their lowest levels since 1999. This divergence between low exchange stocks and rising physical availability is creating volatility in the coffee complex.
Raw Sugar Hits 16-Month High on Supply Concerns
Raw sugar futures reached a 16-month high earlier in the week before receding slightly, driven by concerns over Indian export policies and global supply tightness. The contract closed August with a significant gain of 21.5%, reflecting broader market anxiety about production shortfalls in key regions. This surge contrasts sharply with the coffee market's downtrend, highlighting the divergent supply dynamics across soft commodities.
Ivory Coast Maintains Cocoa Farmer Price at 1,200 FCFA/kg
The Ivorian government officially announced on September 1 that the guaranteed farm-gate price for cocoa will remain at 1,200 FCFA/kg for the main 2026/27 campaign, which began unusually early on September 1 instead of October 1. This decision, made by Agriculture Minister Bruno Nabagné Koné during the National Cocoa and Chocolate Days, aims to stabilize costs but has raised concerns among industry sources about potential disincentives for farmers given inflation and input costs.
Local view
Vietnam: Local media reported that domestic robusta prices in the Central Highlands fell by 700 VND/kg on September 3, trading between 94,300–95,000 VND/kg, mirroring the global decline. By September 4, prices dipped further to 93,700–94,500 VND/kg as London robusta futures approached $3,400/tonne. Farmers are watching closely as the gap between domestic and international prices narrows.
Ivory Coast: Local outlets highlighted the controversy surrounding the state's announcement of a 100,000-tonne cocoa stock buyback, with questions arising about whether the government has actually executed the purchases to support the fixed price. The maintenance of the 1,200 FCFA price was widely covered as a critical decision for the world's top producer, with some analysts warning it may slow arrivals if farmers seek better terms elsewhere or reduce inputs.
Context & numbers
- Brazilian Coffee Crop: The 2026/27 Brazilian coffee harvest is projected to reach a record 77.2 million bags due to favorable climatic conditions.
- Cocoa Stocks: The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported that end-of-season stocks increased by nearly 3% to 1.309 million tonnes, raising the stocks-to-grindings ratio to 28.2%.
- Vietnamese Exports: Vietnam's coffee exports reached a record $8.9 billion in 2025, with robusta remaining the primary driver of revenue.
- Price Forecasts: Reuters polls cited by market analysts suggest arabica could fall to around US$3/lb by year-end, while robusta is forecast to recover slightly to US$3,900/tonne.
On the radar
- Ivory Coast Stock Buyback Verification: Watch for further clarification from the Conseil Café Cacao regarding the actual volume of the announced 100,000-tonne state buyback, which remains unconfirmed by independent auditors.
- Indian Sugar Policy: Market participants are closely monitoring India for any new restrictions or incentives regarding sugar exports, which directly impacted the recent 16-month high in raw sugar prices.
- Brazilian Weather Forecasts: Continued dry weather in Minas Gerais and São Paulo is expected to keep harvest pressures high, potentially driving arabica prices lower in the short term.
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