Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-09-19
Arabica coffee futures hit a fresh 10-week low as Brazil’s accelerating harvest and surging exports flood the market, while robusta prices retreated below $3,400/ton. In West Africa, Ivorian cocoa producers launched an unlimited strike to protest the fixed farm-gate price, coinciding with a 5% drop in ICE cocoa futures.
Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-09-19
Top developments
Arabica coffee hits fresh 10-week low on Brazilian supply surge
December arabica coffee (KCZ26) fell to its lowest level since June 30, pressured by rising ICE certified stocks and a significant acceleration in Brazil’s harvest. ADM Investor Services reported that December coffee hit this low as strong Brazilian exports eased supply concerns, with the market reacting to drier weather in Brazil speeding up picking operations. This shift marks a reversal from the shortage-driven rally of previous years, as the market anticipates a record 2026/27 crop near 72 million bags.
Ivorian cocoa producers launch unlimited strike over farm-gate price
Cocoa producers in Côte d'Ivoire called for an "unlimited strike" starting Wednesday, September 16, 2026, to demand better remuneration following the government’s decision to maintain the farm-gate price at 1,200 FCFA/kg for the 2026-2027 campaign. This fixed price represents a 57% drop from the previous year’s peak of 2,800 FCFA/kg, leading to significant discontent among farmers. The strike threatens to disrupt cocoa arrivals from the world’s largest producer just as global prices face downward pressure.
Robusta prices retreat as global supply pressures mount
September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) dropped sharply, falling below the $3,400/ton mark to trade around $3,391/ton. The decline was driven by increasing supplies from Brazil and rising inventory levels, which outweighed short-term logistical constraints. In Vietnam, domestic prices in the Central Highlands fell by 500–600 VND/kg, settling between 93,000 and 93,800 VND/kg, reflecting the global bearish trend.
Cotton sells off amid macroeconomic headwinds
Cotton futures declined on September 18 due to follow-through chart-based selling and broader macroeconomic concerns, specifically the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to combat inflation. This move added pressure to soft commodities, as higher rates increase holding costs and dampen demand expectations for industrial commodities like cotton.
Local view
In Brazil, local analysts are highlighting the paradox of falling prices despite historically low ICE stocks. EBC Financial Group noted that arabica is approaching a 10-week minimum even though ICE stocks are at their lowest level in 27 years, attributing the disconnect to the sheer volume of Brazilian exports hitting the market. Meanwhile, SAFRAS & Mercado confirmed that the prospect of a larger 2027 crop is already being priced in, cooling the market after the recent highs.
In Vietnam, Dân Trí reported that while coffee prices fell, expansion plans by major agricultural conglomerates like Hoàng Anh Gia Lai (Bau Duc) continue, signaling long-term confidence in yield improvements despite current price volatility.
Context & numbers
- Brazilian Exports: August coffee exports reached a record 4.155 million bags (60 kg), generating $1.331 billion in revenue, up 19.8% year-on-year.
- Soluble Coffee: Brazil’s soluble coffee exports grew 24.9% in August, indicating strong processing sector activity.
- Vietnam Domestic Prices: Central Highlands coffee prices averaged 93,000–93,800 VND/kg on September 19, down from the recent peak of 96,000 VND/kg.
- Ivorian Traceability: Since the start of the season, 38,000 Ivorian cocoa producers have used traceability cards for sales, a system now mandatory for the campaign.
On the radar
- Ivorian Strike Impact: Monitor port arrivals from Abidjan and San Pedro for signs of delays caused by the producer strike initiated on September 16.
- US Fuel Export Ban: Reports from Vietnam mention potential US restrictions on fuel exports, which could impact global shipping costs and fertilizer availability for soft commodity producers.
- Fed Policy: Further interest rate decisions or Fed commentary will remain critical for cotton and sugar, which are sensitive to USD strength and industrial demand forecasts.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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