Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-10-11
Brazilian coffee exports surged 86% to the US in September as tariffs eased, though total revenue fell 7.1% amid falling prices. Raw sugar futures pulled back from a 19-month high as investors took profits, while cocoa prices remained under pressure from improved rainfall forecasts in West Africa. In Vietnam, domestic robusta prices rebounded sharply after a two-day slide, tracking mixed global futures where London robusta recovered against declining New York arabica.
Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-10-11
Top developments
Brazil Coffee Exports Surge to US, Revenue Slips
Brazilian coffee exports to the United States jumped 86.4% in September 2026 as trade tariffs ended, making the US the top buyer again. However, total export revenue fell to US$1.28 billion, a 7.1% year-on-year decline, due to lower average prices. This volume-driven recovery contrasts with the price weakness seen in ICE arabica futures, which slipped following data confirming increased Brazilian supply availability.
Raw Sugar Pulls Back From 19-Month High
Raw sugar futures on ICE fell on Thursday, retreating from the 19-month peak set earlier in the week. The correction occurred as investors took profits and fund buying eased, despite continued support from delayed harvest progress in Brazil. London white sugar also saw mixed trading, closing slightly lower while NY sugar had previously posted its highest nearest-futures price in 19 months.
Vietnamese Robusta Rebounds Amid Mixed Global Signals
Domestic robusta prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands (Tây Nguyên) fell sharply on October 9 to 92,200–93,000 VND/kg but rebounded strongly on October 11, rising 1,100 VND/kg to reach an average of 93,000 VND/kg. This local volatility mirrored global markets, where London robusta futures rose by USD 47/ton on October 10, diverging from the continued decline in New York arabica contracts. The split suggests supply concerns for robusta are persisting even as arabica faces pressure from Brazilian export volumes.
Cocoa Faces Pressure from West African Rain Forecasts
Cocoa futures faced downward pressure this week as improved rainfall forecasts for Ivory Coast and Ghana eased immediate supply fears. While specific settlement figures for this week were not detailed in the provided summaries, the broader trend indicated a pullback from recent highs, with easing fund buying contributing to the softness in the sector. The divergence between improving weather expectations and persistent structural issues in West African production remains a key driver for cocoa volatility.
Local view
Brazilian Media Focus on Export Volumes vs. Revenue Local outlets such as CNN Brasil and Globo Rural highlighted that while Brazil exported 3.894 million bags of coffee in September (a 3.1% volume increase), the value of these shipments dropped significantly. Noticias R7 noted that the January-September cumulative revenue fell by 8.6%, reflecting a market where volume growth is not translating into higher farm-gate revenues due to global price adjustments.
Vietnamese Stakeholders Note Divergent Robusta/Arabica Trends Vietnamese media like Doanhnghiephoinhap.vn emphasized the "contrary movement" between robusta and arabica, noting that robusta's resilience in London helped stabilize local prices after the initial drop. Local traders are watching the robusta recovery closely, as it supports the profitability of Vietnamese farmers who are currently in the early stages of their harvest.
Context & numbers
- Brazil Coffee Exports: 3.894 million bags exported in September (+3.1% YoY); Revenue US$1.28 billion (-7.1% YoY).
- US-Brazil Coffee Trade: Exports to the US rose 86.4% in September following the end of tariffs.
- Vietnam Domestic Prices (Oct 11): Average 93,000 VND/kg; Đắk Lắk and Gia Lai saw increases of up to 1,200 VND/kg.
- Sugar Futures: NY Sugar #11 hit a 19-month high before pulling back; London White Sugar #5 hit a 22-month high earlier in the week.
On the radar
- USDA WASDE Report Impact: The October 9 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report has been released, reshaping global crop balances. Traders are analyzing how these new figures affect the outlook for cotton and sugar production, with expectations of slightly smaller cotton production.
- Cotton Settlements: Cotton was near unchanged ahead of the WASDE release, with markets awaiting further direction on global supply tightness.
- Ivory Coast Cocoa Pricing: The fixed producer price remains at 1,200 FCFA/kg for the 2026-2027 campaign, creating a significant gap compared to Ghana’s recently raised price of 42,400 cedis/tonne, which may influence cross-border smuggling or farmer sentiment.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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