Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-10-28
Brazilian election results triggered a sharp currency devaluation, causing sugar and coffee prices to plunge over 4% as exporters accelerated sales. Meanwhile, Indian sugar policy tightened to manage domestic supply, while cocoa prices saw a modest weekly rebound amid persistent volatility.
Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Cotton Daily — 2026-10-28
Top developments
Brazil Election Shock Drives Sugar and Coffee Slump
The surprise victory of former President Lula in Brazil’s recent election caused the Brazilian real to depreciate significantly, making Brazilian commodities cheaper for foreign buyers. Consequently, raw sugar and arabica coffee futures slid by more than 4% on Monday, October 26, as exporters rushed to capitalize on the currency advantage. This move reversed recent gains and pressured prices across the ICE complex, with cotton also falling due to increased harvest progress and currency dynamics.
Coffee Futures Extend Selloff Despite Low Stocks
Coffee futures extended Monday’s selloff into Tuesday, driven by the weak Brazilian real which encourages exporter selling. Although ICE arabica stocks are falling, the currency effect dominated market sentiment, leading to a divergence where robusta prices also faced pressure from increased supply expectations. The market remains sensitive to Brazilian currency fluctuations, which currently outweigh fundamental inventory tightness.
India Tightens Sugar Controls Amid Brazil Weather Risks
India has implemented tighter controls on sugar exports to manage domestic supply and stabilize local prices, a move that keeps the global sugar market tight. This policy shift coincides with weather concerns in Brazil, where rains have impacted cane harvesting conditions. The combination of restricted Indian exports and Brazilian logistical challenges supports sugar prices, which steadied on Friday as oil prices rallied and El Niño-linked weather risks persisted.
Cocoa Prices Stabilize with Modest Weekly Gains
Cocoa prices rose slightly on Tuesday, marking a divergence from the coffee and sugar complex. After a volatile year where prices dropped from over $6,000/ton to below $2,850 in March before rebounding to over $6,800 in August, the market has seen a recent retreat. However, prices have made higher lows since March, with the latest data showing a 1.33% increase on October 27 to $5,563/ton.
Local view
Vietnam: Domestic robusta prices in the Central Highlands continued to decline, dropping to 88,300–89,000 VND/kg on October 28. Local media reports indicate that domestic prices are following the global trend, with farmers facing pressure as new crop supply begins to hit the market. The average buying price fell 600–700 VND/kg compared to the previous session.
Brazil: Local analysis from Forbes Agro highlights that the election result is the primary driver for the current price weakness in soy, coffee, and sugar. The devaluation of the real is seen as a double-edged sword: boosting export competitiveness but hurting domestic producer prices in local currency terms. CNN Brasil notes that arabica coffee fell 2.39% in New York, with certified stocks remaining near historic lows, but the currency pressure remains dominant.
Ivory Coast: The Conseil Café Cacao maintained the farm-gate price for the 2026/27 campaign at 1,200 FCFA/kg, a decision that has caused division among producer representatives. While some producers in Sikensi have rejected strikes against this price, the gap between Ivory Coast’s 1,200 FCFA and Ghana’s ~2,100 FCFA continues to fuel concerns about smuggling and retention.
Context & numbers
- Coffee: December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed up 1.56% on Wednesday after a Tuesday decline, while November robusta (RMX26) fell 1.70%. ICE arabica inventories rose by 4,847 bags to 239,748 on Wednesday, reversing a five-week low.
- Cocoa: Cocoa futures rose 1.33% to $5,563/ton on October 27. Year-over-year, cocoa is down 7.31%.
- Sugar: Raw sugar prices steadied on Friday, supported by oil rallies and weather concerns, before falling sharply on Monday due to the Brazilian real's slump.
- Vietnam Domestic Prices: Robusta prices in the Central Highlands dropped to 88,300–89,000 VND/kg on October 28, down from 92,000 VND/kg on October 21.
On the radar
- Brazilian Harvest Progress: Continued acceleration of the Brazilian coffee and sugar harvests is expected to maintain downward pressure on prices, particularly if the real remains weak.
- Indian Sugar Policy: Watch for further announcements from the Indian government regarding export quotas or subsidies, which could significantly impact global sugar supply balances.
- Cocoa Volatility: With cocoa prices hovering near $5,500–$6,000/ton, any news regarding Ivorian or Ghanaian crop arrivals or disease outbreaks could trigger sharp swings.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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