Turkey and Frontier Stocks: BIST 100, PSX, TASE, Merval — 2026-09-11
Turkey's BIST 100 closed lower on Thursday as the Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) held its policy rate at 37% for the fifth consecutive meeting, citing geopolitical risks and oil prices. Meanwhile, Argentina's Merval index rallied to a five-week high driven by energy stocks and rising oil prices, while Pakistan's KSE-100 faced pressure from regional tensions. Foreign investors continued to sell Turkish equities, with significant outflows recorded in the previous week.
Turkey and Frontier Stocks: BIST 100, PSX, TASE, Merval — 2026-09-11
Top developments
TCMB Maintains 37% Policy Rate Amid Geopolitical Caution
On Thursday, September 10, the Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at 37%, marking the fifth consecutive hold since the January cut from 38%. The decision reflects caution regarding inflation trends and geopolitical risks, particularly fallout from regional conflicts. Following the announcement, the BIST 100 banking index dipped as much as 1.2% before closing the day down 0.77% at 14,393.85 points. The lira remained relatively stable near 48.49 against the US dollar during the trading session.
Argentina’s Merval Hits Five-Week High on Energy Gains
Argentina's S&P Merval index rose 1.5% on Thursday, September 10, reaching its highest level in five weeks, driven largely by gains in energy shares following a spike in oil prices above $100 per barrel. While equities surged, sovereign bonds fell slightly, pushing the country risk premium (riesgo país) to approximately 491 basis points. The Argentine peso held steady at $1,535 against the dollar at the Banco Nación, where the Central Bank (BCRA) purchased only $6 million in the market. Earlier in the week, the Merval had also posted gains despite adverse moves in Wall Street, indicating resilience in local assets.
Foreign Investors Exit Turkish Equities
Data released on September 10 revealed that foreign investors recorded a net sale of $647.6 million in Turkish equities during the previous week. This outflow contrasts with a net purchase of $156.7 million in government bonds (DİBS), bringing the total foreign portfolio holding in Turkey to $152.4 billion. The selling pressure contributed to the BIST 100's volatility, with the index dropping 111.63 points on Thursday alone, amid a total trading volume of 232.3 billion lira.
Pakistan KSE-100 Under Pressure from Regional Tensions
Pakistan's stock market faced significant downward pressure earlier in the week, with the KSE-100 index experiencing sharp declines due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices. On Wednesday, September 9, the market opened with heavy selling, reflecting reduced investor confidence amid fears of new attacks in the region. Although specific daily close figures for the end of the week were not detailed in the latest snippets, the trend indicated a bearish sentiment driven by external geopolitical shocks rather than domestic fundamentals.
Local view
Turkish financial media, including Borsanın Gündemi and BirGün, highlighted the "direction change" in the BIST 100 on Thursday, noting that the index started positive but turned negative in the afternoon, closing down 0.77%. Analysts at Marbaş Menkul Değerler pointed to 14,620 as resistance and 14,200 as support for the BIST 100, emphasizing that the TCMB's rate decision and its accompanying statement would be crucial for short-term price movements. In Argentina, Infobae and El Cronista focused on the divergence between the strong performance of local stocks (especially energy) and the slight weakening of bonds, attributing the stock rally directly to the global surge in oil prices.
Context & numbers
- BIST 100 Close (Sept 10): 14,393.85 points (-0.77%).
- BIST 100 Volume: 232.3 billion lira.
- TCMB Policy Rate: Held at 37.00%.
- USD/TRY: Approximately 48.49.
- S&P Merval (Sept 10): +1.5% (Five-week high).
- Argentina Country Risk: ~491 basis points.
- USD/ARS: $1,535 at Banco Nación.
- Foreign Net Sales in Turkey (Weekly): $647.6 million in equities; +$156.7 million in bonds.
- Oil Price: Brent crude surpassed $108-$109 per barrel, driving energy stocks higher in both Turkey and Argentina.
On the radar
- TCMB Statement Analysis: Market participants are closely scrutinizing the language in the TCMB's post-meeting statement for hints on future easing cycles, given the persistent inflation and high rates.
- Geopolitical Impact on PSX: Investors are monitoring whether the selling pressure on the Pakistan KSE-100 continues if Middle East tensions escalate further.
- Argentine Bond Dynamics: With the country risk hovering near 500 basis points, watch for any intervention by the BCRA in the bond market or changes in dollar liquidity.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
Powered by
