Turkey Rates and the CBRT: Lira, Reserves, Inflation — 2026-09-28

Top developments

CBRT reserves take a $6.9bn hit

Gedik Yatırım's weekly monetary report (covering September 11–18) shows net reserves excluding swaps fell $6.9 billion, from $49.97 billion to $43.14 billion, while total reserves dropped $4.32 billion to $174.40 billion. CBRT's net international reserves were reported down $6.41 billion in one week, from $62.25 billion to $55.84 billion. The drain reflects the strain on FX liquidity as markets digest the investment-fund crisis, and complicates the picture for a rate-cutting cycle.

Foreign investors pull out; BIST selling accelerates

Foreign investors net-sold $226.7 million in Turkish equities and bonds in the September 11–18 week, and $558.4 million in week 18 September per one column tracking the "caution period." Local commentary ties the reserve decline to a search for a new balance in FX liquidity.

Fund crisis scale confirmed: $18bn, ~500,000 investors

Turkey's capital markets regulator said on September 23 that nearly half a million investors hold stakes in more than 100 investment funds worth around $18 billion, as the government made recovering their money its top priority. Goldman Sachs analysts said most of the money exiting money-market funds is likely moving into lira deposits — supporting deposit stability but squeezing the fund sector.

Fitch and OECD reset Turkey outlook

Fitch forecast 2026 inflation at 30.5% and growth at 2.8%, flagging the Iran war's impact and a current account deficit approaching 3% of GDP on higher energy prices — while noting reserve improvement and tight policy limit risks. Fitch also set year-end USD/TRY forecasts for 2026 and 2027 in a Turkish-language note. The OECD also raised its Turkey inflation forecast and trimmed its growth outlook.

Şimşek pitches resilience to US investors

Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek told US investors the Turkish economy remains strong and resilient despite difficult global conditions and regional conflict — a reassurance campaign sequencing directly with the fund-crisis news flow.

Local view

Turkish financial media is focused on the reserves drain: Ekotürk called the one-week $6.41 billion fall in net international reserves "a striking decline," and Turkhaber framed the September 18 week data as a search for "a new balance in FX liquidity". Local outlets are also watching the October PPK date closely — Bigpara has a running countdown to the next rate decision, and Investing.com Turkey reported muting of the policy question after the Fed. Ekotürk also highlighted a CBRT blog post ("Merkezin Güncesi") suggesting FX conversion support could boost reserves if targeted at high value-added, net-FX-earning exporters.

Context & numbers

• Net international reserves (Sept 18 week): $55.84bn, down $6.41bn w/w
• Net reserves excl. swaps: $43.14bn, down from $49.97bn
• Total reserves: $174.40bn, down $4.32bn w/w
• Policy rate: held at 37% (corridor: overnight lending 40%, borrowing 35.5%) at the September PPK
• September CBRT market-participants survey: year-end inflation expectation rose to 29.61%, year-end USD/TRY at 51.57, 12-month USD/TRY at 58.60
• Fitch 2026 forecasts: inflation 30.5%, growth 2.8%, CAD near 3% of GDP
• Fund crisis: ~$18bn across 100+ funds, ~500,000 investors

On the radar

• October PPK meeting: the next rate decision is the immediate focus for local markets; the redemption crisis and reserve drain are the key variables.
• September CPI print from TÜİK, due early October — the figure feeding civil servant/retiree increases and rent adjustments.
• Weekly CBRT reserve data for the week ending September 25 — market watch is on whether the swap-excluded net reserve slide below $43bn continues.
• Resolution of the investment-fund liquidation crisis; the justice ministry says recovering ~500,000 investors' money is the priority, with the full scope of redemptions and any state backstop still unclear.