Won and Asian FX: KRW, TWD, INR and ASEAN Currencies — 2026-10-19

Top developments

Rupiah Breaches 18,000 Threshold, BI Vows Intervention

On October 16, the Indonesian Rupiah fell past the psychologically significant level of 18,000 per US dollar, reaching approximately 18,073. Bank Indonesia (BI) immediately signaled a "continuous presence" in financial markets to stabilize the currency, citing global risk-off sentiment and the upcoming MSCI reclassification as key drivers of volatility. This move places the Rupiah under severe pressure alongside other oil-importing Asian currencies, forcing BI to expand intervention scope beyond spot markets into State Securities (SBN) to support the exchange rate.

Rupee Recovers 2% Weekly Amid RBI Liquidity Measures

The Indian Rupee staged a significant recovery, closing at 94.92 against the dollar on October 16, marking its sixth consecutive session of gains. The RBI’s deployment of multiple stabilization tools, including a special dollar window for oil companies and tighter currency derivative limits, helped the rupee bounce back from a record low of 96.79. This surge represents a 1.9% weekly appreciation, the largest in seven months, as the central bank successfully absorbed foreign fund outflows and mitigated the impact of elevated crude oil prices.

Won Hits Two-Year Low on Exporter Conversions

The Korean Won strengthened significantly on October 12, closing at 1,335.10 per dollar, its lowest level in two years since October 2024. The appreciation was driven by a surge in "nego" (exporter dollar sales) volumes and net selling by foreign investors in futures, which increased dollar supply in the domestic market. Despite this strength, the won remains within a resilient 1,325–1,400 range as seen in recent outlooks, though the rapid decline triggered close monitoring by authorities for potential smoothing operations.

Offshore NDF Trading Drops After 24-Hour Won Launch

Data released by the Bank of Korea on October 16 shows that non-residents' average daily offshore NDF trading fell by 7.9% in September to $22.78 billion. This decline marks the second consecutive month of reduced activity following the launch of 24-hour won trading in July. The shift suggests that some offshore hedging demand is migrating to the domestic onshore market, potentially reducing the transparency and volume of traditional NDF signals used by global investors to gauge won sentiment.

Local view

Local media in Indonesia highlight the psychological impact of the Rupiah crossing 18,000, with Liputan6 and CNN Indonesia focusing on BI's expanded intervention into the bond market (SBN) to prevent disorderly moves. In India, Business Today and Prabhasakshi report that RBI's specific measures, such as restricting currency speculation and providing direct dollar liquidity to oil importers, are credited for the rupee's sharp weekly recovery, though concerns remain about the depletion of forex reserves.

Context & numbers

• USD/IDR: Breached 18,000 on Oct 16; reached ~18,073.
• USD/INR: Closed at 94.92 (Oct 16); recovered from 96.79 low.
• USD/KRW: Closed at 1,335.10 (Oct 12); two-year low.
• NDF Volumes: Offshore NDF daily average fell to $22.78 billion in Sept.
• Interbank FX: Q3 daily interbank FX trading volume exceeded $55 billion.

On the radar

• Rupiah Resistance: Watch for continued BI intervention effectiveness as the Rupiah tests the 18,000–18,200 range, with Liputan6 flagging 18,200 as the next risk level.
• Won Stabilization: Monitor if the won holds the 1,330 level or if the Bank of Korea steps in to smooth volatility after the rapid 7.7 won drop on Oct 12.
• Rupee Reserves: India's forex reserves fell by ~$60 billion over five weeks; watch for further RBI liquidity injections if this trend continues.