Won and Asian FX: KRW, TWD, INR and ASEAN Currencies — 2026-09-25
Asian FX had a split week: the won staged a dramatic pre-Chuseok rally, plunging over 22 won on exporter dollar selling, while the rupiah and rupee sagged under a resurgent dollar driven by rising US Treasury yields and stronger Fed hike bets. Bank Indonesia stepped up intervention as the rupiah neared Rp18,000, and India's rupee seesawed with crude oil prices. Offshore NDF markets signaled further won strength into the holiday.
Won and Asian FX: KRW, TWD, INR and ASEAN Currencies — 2026-09-25
Top developments
Won plunges 22.8 won into the 1,350s on pre-Chuseok exporter selling
On September 22, the USD/KRW rate crashed more than 22 won into the 1,350 won range — a dramatic reversal despite a firm dollar, rising US yields and higher oil. Exporter negotiation (nego) dollar sales ahead of the Chuseok holiday were joined by large dollar selling from foreign-linked accounts, plus foreign net buying of Korean stocks and risk-on sentiment from softer oil. Earlier in the week, the rate had fallen for the first time in eight trading days to close near 1,381 on the same nego flows, and dipped intraday to the 1,340s before importers' real-demand dollar buying clawed back some of the drop. The move matters for the daily won close: dollar supply from exporters is capping the upside as Chuseok thins liquidity this week.
Offshore NDF points to further won appreciation
The dollar-won 1-month NDF ended September 23 at 1,353.30 (MID), down 4.70 won after accounting for swap points — a clear offshore signal of expectation for lower spot levels when Seoul reopens. Earlier in the week, top-side продаж was limited by wariness of actual Japanese intervention in yen markets plus exporter nego flow, keeping the rate range-bound in the mid-1,380s.
Rupiah approaches Rp18,000 as Bank Indonesia intensifies intervention
The rupiah hit Rp17,961 per dollar on September 24 — the weakest in Asia — hit by the surging dollar, oil price spikes and Fed tightening expectations. It opened Friday even softer near Rp17,933. BI is reinforcing intervention via NDFs, DNDF, spot and SBN purchases to defend the currency. Reuters reports the rupiah is heading for its biggest weekly fall since May on higher US yields and a firm dollar.
Rupee whipsawed by crude and Fed bets
The rupee fell 26 paise to 95.99 per dollar on September 24 amid higher crude and a stronger dollar, after closing at 95.62 on Tuesday helped by cheaper oil and hopes of US-Iran diplomatic talks. It rose for a fifth session on softer crude and possible RBI dollar sales via state banks. On Friday it opened 14 paise higher at 95.85 on positive domestic equities. The dollar is set for its first back-to-back weekly gains in over three months on surging Treasury yields and Fed hike bets.
Local view
Korean media attribute the won's sharp move squarely to pre-Chuseok exporter nego flows and foreign-equity inflows overwhelming dollar strength — Money Today says exporters' dollar selling "poured in" despite US rate strength, with oil's fall restoring risk appetite. Seoul Economic Daily notes the paradox that the won dropped even as the global dollar strengthened — a local flows story, not a dollar story. In Indonesia, Suara.com reports BI strengthened its FX-market intervention as rupiah weakness stemmed from expectations of tighter US monetary policy, global inflation worries and fiscal uncertainty. An RBI deputy governor said the rupee should strengthen in coming years thanks current account improvements and FTA-created opportunities, noting a cumulative 13.1% depreciation from March 31, 2025 to September 16, 2026.
Context & numbers
- USD/KRW: 1,383.3 close on Sept 18 (+1.1 won, post-Fed hike), then fell to the 1,350s by Sept 22 — a ~30-won swing within the week
- Dollar-won 1M NDF: 1,353.30/1,353.50 (Sept 23), implying lower spot ahead
- USD/IDR: Rp17.961 on Sept 24, weakest in Asia; Rp17.98–18.00 zone in play
- USD/INR: 95.62–95.99 range this week; opened 95.85 Friday
- Korea's international reserves: $428.1 billion at end-Dec 2025, world's ninth largest
- The US Treasury and Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance have committed to monthly exchange of FX intervention data and public disclosure of reserves and forward positions
On the radar
- Chuseok holiday lull: Korean markets thin out; spot won trading will be subdued into early October — watch for gap risk on reopening given the NDF signal below 1,353
- BoJ after Japan's rate hike to 1.25%: the yen slid after the move, limiting won/yen spillovers, but actual JGB/FX intervention by Japan remains the key cap on regional dollar Tops
- Oil direction: crude swings drove both the rupee's five-session run and its subsequent reversals; any renewed Middle East tension would re-pressure INR and IDR
- RBI's next policy meeting: markets are watching potential RBI dollar sales via state banks as a key technical for INR support
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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