Yen and Yuan Watch: USD/JPY and USD/CNY Daily — 2026-09-25
Intervention risk is back at the forefront as the yen sits within reach of 160/dollar, prompting new jawboning from Japanese officials and a one-day yen rally. Meanwhile, the yuan's 3.5-year-high run is pausing: the PBoC nudged the fix slightly weaker while pledging continued counter-cyclical support, with analysts split on whether gains can extend.
Yen and Yuan Watch: USD/JPY and USD/CNY Daily — 2026-09-25
Top developments
Yen intervention risk re-emerges as 160/dollar level nears
After a two-week slide, the yen is back within reach of the closely watched 160/dollar level as Japan returned from its market holiday. Bloomberg reports intervention risk is again the central question for currency traders. Overnight USD/JPY touched 158.37 — its highest since early September — before easing to 157.88 as Tokyo reopened: the Ministry of Finance has spent ¥15.4 trillion defending the yen since late July, and the BoJ ran a rate check on September 18.
Yen rallies on official jawboning after talks with US
The yen was headed for its best day in almost three weeks as Japanese officials, including Finance Minister Katayama's remarks, discussed the problems tied to a weak currency in meetings with their US counterparts. Separately, Japan said Tokyo and Washington remain committed to the stance behind July's joint intervention, which also helped drive a yen rally. This cadence of verbal intervention — without confirmed spot intervention — matters because it raises the risk premium on USD/JPY short-side positions and narrows the window for carry-trade re-entry.
Nomura lifts year-end USD/JPY forecast to 152.5
Nomura Securities raised its end-2026 USD/JPY forecast to 152.5, citing Middle East tensions strengthening dollar pressure, in commentary published by Yugo Goto. The revised view suggests strategists see dollar-structural pressure limiting how far intervention-led yen strength can run.
PBoC vows continued counter-cyclical support, "appropriately loose" policy
On Thursday (Sept 24), the People's Bank of China said it will step up counter-cyclical adjustments and keep an "appropriately loose" monetary policy while maintaining yuan stability. Onshore fixing moved to 6.7489 on Sept 24, a daily devaluation of 21 pips from the prior 6.7468.
SocGen: Xi's US visit yields limited gains; PBoC keeps yuan broadly stable
Societe Generale notes limited FX impact from President Xi's US visit: no new tariff cuts or AI dialogue mechanism were agreed, and the trade truce was only extended to January; the PBoC has kept the yuan broadly stable. The pre-summit fixing streak — PBoC strengthened the fix for nine straight sessions pushing USD/CNY below 6.70 — has now clearly paused.
Local view
- Nikkei专题: 为替介入 — Nikkei maintains a dedicated intervention news hub tracking the scale and impact of buy-yen operations in real time.
- Zai Diamond / 羊飼い (Sept 24) — Japanese FX commentary frames the market as a tug-of-war between "intervention speculation" and rising US rates, with USD/JPY testing highs but repeatedly pushed back by intervention fears.
- 外為どっとコム (Sept 24) — Local analysts flag 159 yen as within view tonight, with intervention alertness following the BoJ rate check and Fed speakers as the key drivers.
- Minkabu (Sept 23) — NY FX commentary argues the timing for buying-yen intervention is where yen-selling is at its most attractive.
- Chinese-language press: On Sept 18, both onshore and offshore yuan broke through 6.70 against the dollar, the strongest since early 2023; Caixin-sourced interviews attributed the strength to trade-sector strength, current account surpluses and resilient FX settlement demand.
Context & numbers
- USD/JPY: overnight high 158.37, then 157.88 as Tokyo reopened after a three-day holiday; a two-week climb has brought 160 into range.
- MOF intervention tally: ¥15.4 trillion of buy-yen operations since late July.
- USD/CNY fixing: 6.7489 (Sept 24) vs 6.7468 (Sept 23), the first readjustment weaker after a long strengthening run.
- Yuan基准: both onshore and offshore broke 6.70 on Sept 18, strongest levels since 2022/first half of 2023.
- Official data-check points: MOF monthly intervention release and BoJ daily FX rate lists remain the definitive records.
On the radar
- Eastspring's "reverse carry" idea: Japan's steep yield curve has opened a reverse-carry trade opportunity, per Reuters — a rare positioning angle worth watching.
- Carry-trade substitution: With the yen no longer yielding, strategists note the Chinese yuan and Canadian dollar are being eyed as alternative carry funding currencies.
- CNH/CNY spread: The offshore fix (CNH) saw a narrower premium during the Sept 18 break of 6.70; watch whether the weaker Sept 24 fixing widens the spread again.
- Vantage analysis: After the BoJ's Sept 18 hike, the yen fell but pared declines when the Nikkei reported the BoJ had asked market participants about exchange-rate levels — such "rate checks" remain a leading intervention indicator to monitor.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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