Balkan EU Accession: Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia — 2026-09-14
The IMF has released a new report projecting that EU membership could boost GDP per capita by 30–35% for candidate countries, providing a strong economic argument for the ongoing accession processes. Meanwhile, Montenegro’s government is warning that upcoming elections in key EU member states could jeopardize its goal of joining by 2028, while analysts highlight the EU’s "unfinished business" in the region.
Balkan EU Accession: Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia — 2026-09-14
Top developments
IMF projects significant economic gains for new members
On September 13, 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a report stating that joining the European Union could increase the GDP per capita of new member states by 30% to 35% within the first ten years of accession. This projection relies on specific conditions being met, such as institutional reforms and market integration. For Montenegro and Albania, which are in advanced stages of negotiation, this data provides a concrete economic benchmark to justify the rigorous requirements of Chapter openings and closings. The report underscores the tangible benefits of the "race to be the EU's next member by 2028," potentially strengthening the political will for finalizing judicial and administrative reforms required by IBAR benchmarks.
Montenegro warns of electoral risks to 2028 accession timeline
Montenegro’s Minister of European Affairs, Gorčević, warned on September 10, 2026, that key elections scheduled for 2027 in France, Poland, Italy, Spain, and Greece pose a risk to the country's EU accession progress. The minister emphasized that Brussels should "not take any country for granted," signaling concern that a shift in political leadership in major EU states could slow down the fast-track process. This warning comes as Montenegro has provisionally closed 18 out of 33 chapters, positioning it as the frontrunner for the next membership slot. The statement highlights the fragility of the current momentum, linking domestic stability in EU capitals directly to the closure of remaining chapters for Podgorica.
ECFR highlights EU’s "unfinished business" in the Western Balkans
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) published an analysis on September 12, 2026, arguing that while Montenegro and Albania are advancing, the EU must not neglect its broader responsibility to the Western Balkans. The article suggests that a selective enlargement approach risks leaving behind other candidates like Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo, potentially destabilizing the region. This perspective adds pressure on Brussels to maintain a consistent enlargement policy, ensuring that the acceleration of Montenegro and Albania does not inadvertently signal a retreat from the region as a whole. It frames the current speed of negotiations not just as a bilateral success but as part of a wider geopolitical strategy to counter external influences.
Local view
Local media in Montenegro are focusing heavily on the "political maturity" required to finish negotiations. Cetinjski List reported on September 12, 2026, that while there is no formal "yes" from Brussels yet, the doors are wide open. The outlet noted that the focus in Brussels has shifted from checking legal texts to assessing whether Montenegro has the "political strength and capacity" to implement adopted reforms. This reflects a growing sentiment among local stakeholders that the technical work is largely done, and the remaining hurdles are political.
In North Macedonia, Nezavisen Vesnik discussed the implications of recent comments by EU Commissioner Marta Kos regarding ties between candidate countries and movements like MAGA. The article, published on September 10, 2026, explores whether these geopolitical alignments will lead to new conditions for membership, adding a layer of uncertainty to Skopje's path, which remains blocked by constitutional demands from Bulgaria.
Context & numbers
- GDP Impact: IMF estimates a 30–35% increase in GDP per capita for new EU members over 10 years.
- Montenegro Progress: 18 of 33 chapters provisionally closed as of mid-July 2026.
- Albania Progress: Chapters 25, 26, and 30 provisionally closed in July 2026; goal is completion by end of 2027.
On the radar
- Autumn Enlargement Push: Analysts at The Western Balkans note that following Iceland's rejection of EU accession talks in August, there is increased pressure on Brussels to demonstrate action in the Balkans this autumn to maintain credibility.
- Croatian-Montenegrin Relations: Local media in Montenegro (Borba.me) are monitoring potential resolutions to outstanding issues with Croatia, including border disputes, which are seen as final hurdles before full chapter closure.
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