Bolivia: MAS Split, Dollar Shortage, Lithium Deals — 2026-09-08
Bolivia's central bank reported a significant rebound in international reserves, surpassing $4 billion, as the new floating exchange rate regime begins to stabilize the economy. However, severe diesel shortages persist, with queues stretching for a month and freight transport paralyzed, while the Supreme Court President calls for a Constituent Assembly amid rising political tensions with the Paz government.
Bolivia: MAS Split, Dollar Shortage, Lithium Deals — 2026-09-08
Top developments
Central Bank Reserves Surpass $4 Billion
The Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB) announced that Net International Reserves (NIR) have exceeded $4 billion, with liquid foreign currency reserves surpassing $1 billion. This increase is attributed to the new exchange rate regime, which has successfully attracted foreign currency inflows and reduced pressure on the official rate. The BCB stated that the new regime has "summed divisas" (foreign currency) to its reserves, marking a critical step in stabilizing the macroeconomy after months of crisis.
Diesel Shortage Paralyzes Freight and Fuel Queues Persist
Despite the reserve improvements, the physical shortage of fuel remains acute. As of September 7, massive queues for diesel and gasoline continue in major hubs like La Paz, Santa Cruz, and Cochabamba, having persisted for approximately one month. The shortage has idled around 60 percent of foreign-trade trucks, severely impacting logistics and feeding a black market for diesel. The government recently raised the subsidized diesel quota for small farmers and placed state oil company YPFB under temporary intervention to address the crisis.
Supreme Court President Calls for Constituent Assembly Amid Political Rift
In a move that intensifies political instability, Supreme Court President Romer Saucedo called for a Constituent Assembly on September 7, warning that partial reforms from the legislature could cause a social explosion if they exclude broad sectors of society. This call comes amidst an ongoing "pugna" (struggle) between the judiciary and the government of President Rodrigo Paz. The statement highlights the deepening institutional crisis as the Paz administration attempts to consolidate power following the MAS split and recent protests.
IMF Deal Clears First Hurdle but Faces Santa Cruz Deadline
The government has routed its $1.9 billion IMF rescue deal through Congress, clearing the first domestic hurdle five weeks after the agreement was struck. However, the powerful Santa Cruz civic committee has set a deadline that could jeopardize the deal if specific regional demands are not met. The IMF deal is seen as essential for rebuilding reserves and stabilizing the currency, but it faces significant political resistance from opposition strongholds.
Local view
El Diario reports on the structural change in the dollar market, noting that the official rate has shifted from an administered regime to a more dynamic one over the first eight months of 2026. They highlight that the last rise in the dollar was driven by these structural adjustments rather than simple daily fluctuations.
Resumen Latinoamericano, often aligned with left-wing perspectives, emphasizes the ongoing hardship for citizens, documenting the "enormous lines" for fuel that continue despite government interventions. They frame the situation as a failure of current policies to alleviate the immediate suffering caused by the scarcity.
Context & numbers
- Inflation: Bolivia's inflation rate stands at 3.01% year-to-date in 2026, a significant decrease from 18.09% during the same period last year. The twelve-month inflation rate is 5.02%.
- Exchange Rate: The official exchange rate reached Bs12.26 per dollar on September 2, representing a 76% rise from the peg dropped in June. The parallel rate had previously neared Bs12, converging closer to the official rate as the float regime takes hold.
- Reserves: Net International Reserves (NIR) > $4 billion; Liquid foreign currency reserves > $1 billion.
On the radar
- Santa Cruz Deadline: Watch for the Santa Cruz civic committee's reaction to the IMF deal progress in the coming days, which could trigger new roadblocks or political mobilization.
- YPFB Intervention: Monitor the effectiveness of the 180-day intervention of YPFB in alleviating the diesel shortage, particularly regarding supply chain disruptions.
- Constituent Assembly Debate: The call by the Supreme Court President may spark debates within the legislature and among civil society groups about constitutional reform, potentially diverting attention from economic stabilization efforts.
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