Delhi's Smog Season and Stubble Burning — 2026-09-25
The smog season is shaping up with the first early warning signs: Delhi's AQI has climbed from 118 to 151 within days as the monsoon departs, while Punjab begins recording farm fires. The biggest flashpoint is the Centre's new draft imposing penalties of up to ₹30,000 on stubble-burning farmers, which has triggered farmer protests across Punjab. Meanwhile, a Super El Niño outlook threatens to cut winter rains and worsen Diwali-season pollution.
Delhi's Smog Season and Stubble Burning — 2026-09-25
Top developments
Centre's draft rules propose heavy fines for stubble burning, Punjab farmers push back
The Union government has issued a new draft penalty framework under which a farmer with more than five acres who burns paddy stubble could face a fine of ₹30,000, with "red entries" against land records also being considered (per the draft reported in Punjabi-language media). Farmer organisations across Punjab have launched protests against the draft, and the Aam Aadmi Party has also opposed it. The penalties matter for the October-to-January window: enforcement dread historically shapes whether fire counts spike in late October, which is when GRAP stages begin to trigger in Delhi-NCR.
Early farm fires already counted in Punjab, UP
Punjab, UP and other states reported 47 farm fires between September 15 and 23, according to a Times of India report — the first meaningful fire activity of the season. It noted a Super El Niño may reduce winter rains, raising Delhi's pollution risk during the Diwali peak-burning period. Even modest early fire counts combined with weak rainfall can push AQI into the "poor" band faster, accelerating GRAP-I and GRAP-II triggers.
Delhi AQI slides from 118 to 151 as monsoon exits, winter measures lagging
Delhi's AQI rose from 118 on September 19 to 151 (moderate) by September 23, and the Hindustan Times reports that the Delhi government's winter pollution measures are "still not on ground." Safdarjung recorded a minimum of 24.8°C and a previous-day maximum of 36.1°C with rainfall likely. This matters because the pre-October baseline determines how late the season's first GRAP invocation comes — the current aid-in-waiting status leaves the city exposed if fires ramp up early.
DSS data: stubble's contribution to Delhi can exceed 20% on peak days
The Decision Support System (DSS) showed stubble burning contributed more than 20% of Delhi's pollution on 14 days in 2024, an india.com report noted, framing the Super El Niño emergence as a potential aggravator this winter. This is the number to watch when the CAQM's daily DSS bulletins resume in October — it is the figure GRAP escalations and Supreme Court scrutiny feed on.
Local view
Punjabi-language media are overwhelmingly focused on the penalty draft. News18 Punjab is running high-voltage coverage of farmer-organisation protests against the Centre's draft ("High Voltage | Stubble Burning Draft"), and ETV Bharat Punjab reports an angry mood over the ₹30,000 fine for farmers with over five acres. Meanwhile, Punjabijagran's editorial asks "kisan hi kathire ch kyun?" — why are farmers alone in the dock — arguing that subsidised machines and timely, low-cost residue-management services for small farmers are the real fix.
Conversely, Punjab's deputy commissioners are running awareness campaigns — the Nawan Shahar (SBS Nagar) DC urged farmers not to burn stubble "for the sake of clean air and a healthy Punjab."
CM Bhagwant Mann addressed farmers at the PAU Kisan Mela, urging dialogue with unions and discouraging stubble burning during the harvest season.
Punjab's government has released ₹183 crore in subsidy for the 16,227 CRM (crop residue management) machines bought by farmers during the sauni (kharif) season — a signal of how much mechanical residue management is now in play this harvest.
Context & numbers
- Delhi AQI: 118 (Sept 19) → 151 (Sept 23), moderate band, as the monsoon departs.
- Proposed fine for stubble burning (farms >5 acres): ₹30,000 under the new Centre draft.
- Early farm-fire count: 47 fires (Sept 15–23) across Punjab, UP and other states.
- Punjab CRM machines: 16,227 purchased; ₹183 crore subsidy disbursed.
- 2024 peak contribution: stubble burning exceeded 20% of Delhi's pollution on 14 days (DSS data).
On the radar
- Super El Niño watch: Reduced winter rain is flagged as a risk multiplier for October–January AQI and Diwali-season smog; conduit for IMD forecasts worth tracking in the coming weeks.
- Bombay High Court firecracker order (Sept 23): The court banned bursting firecrackers on streets and called DJ/laser-light use at festivals "inappropriate" — a signal for how other High Courts and the Supreme Court may approach the Diwali firecracker question this year.
- Muktsar ban notice: District-level prohibition on burning paddy straw/crop residue announced on September 25 — watch other Punjab districts for similar orders as harvest nears.
- Rain's return: ETV Bharat Hindi reports a Bay of Bengal depression may bring rain back to Delhi-NCR, temporarily clearing air before the season truly begins.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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