Japan's Centenarians, Care Robots and Care Labour — 2026-10-22
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Japan’s government is expanding its foreign care worker visa program by shifting 20,000 skilled visa slots to meet surging demand, as reported by Mainichi Shimbun on October 20. Simultaneously, Nikkei reported on October 24 that the government is considering linking future care fee revisions to productivity improvements, including robot adoption, to address the chronic labor shortage.
Japan's Centenarians, Care Robots and Care Labour — 2026-10-22
Top developments
Government shifts 20,000 visa slots to foreign caregivers
On October 19, Japanese government officials announced plans to expand the quota for foreign care workers with "Specified Skilled Worker" visas by shifting 20,000 slots from other sectors. The Mainichi Shimbun reported that demand for these skilled workers in the care sector is "significantly higher than initially expected," leading to a reallocation of immigration resources to address the acute staffing gap in nursing homes.
Care fee revisions to reward productivity and robot use
The Nikkei reported on October 24 that the government is considering a mechanism to provide additional care fee payments to facilities that demonstrate productivity improvements, such as through the adoption of ICT and robots. This move aims to incentivize efficiency in a sector facing a projected shortage of 250,000 workers in fiscal 2026, ensuring that labor scarcity does not compromise care quality as the population ages.
Specific Skilled Worker visas for food and care sustained
Also reported by Nikkei on October 24, the government plans to maintain the "Specific Skilled Worker" visa categories for food service and care sectors despite earlier discussions on potential changes. This decision reflects the critical reliance on foreign labor in these industries, where domestic recruitment has failed to meet the growing needs of an aging society.
Local view
Local Japanese media outlets, including Mainichi and Nikkei, are focusing heavily on the structural adjustments to the "Specified Skilled Worker" system. The consensus among local stakeholders, as reflected in these reports, is that the previous immigration quotas were overly optimistic regarding domestic labor supply. The shift of 20,000 visa slots is seen as an emergency measure to prevent nursing home closures due to staffing shortages.
Context & numbers
Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare projects a need for approximately 2.4 million care workers in fiscal 2026, representing a shortage of about 250,000 against current staffing levels. By fiscal 2040, the shortage is projected to widen to 570,000 workers as the elderly population peaks. The government’s long-term strategy includes a target to introduce 10 million robots across various industries by 2040 to offset these demographic deficits.
On the radar
- Robot Subsidies for October: New guidance for care facilities on selecting monitoring sensors and care robots has been published by local welfare portals, highlighting the importance of aligning subsidy applications with specific night-shift staffing reductions.
- 2027 Fee Revision Prep: Facilities are beginning to prepare data for the next major care fee revision in fiscal 2027, where productivity metrics will likely play a larger role in reimbursement rates.
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