Kenya's M-Pesa, Safaricom and Mobile-Money Rules — 2026-09-14

Top developments

Safaricom Ethiopia Hits 15 Million Subscribers at Five-Year Mark

On September 7, 2026, Safaricom Ethiopia announced it had surpassed 15 million 90-day active subscribers, exactly five years after receiving its unified license from the Ethiopian government. This milestone represents a significant achievement for the Kenyan telecom giant, which entered the market with aggressive network buildout plans. The rapid growth suggests that Safaricom’s strategy of leveraging its M-PESA ecosystem and brand recognition is gaining traction in Africa’s second-most populous nation, although questions remain about the timeline for achieving sustainable commercial returns.

M-PESA Ethiopia Launches Cardless ATM Withdrawals with Awash Bank

On September 8, 2026, M-PESA Ethiopia introduced a new service allowing customers to withdraw cash directly from supported Awash Bank ATMs without needing a physical card. Users can initiate withdrawals via the M-PESA App, enhancing convenience and reducing reliance on traditional banking infrastructure. This partnership marks a critical step in integrating mobile money with the formal banking sector in Ethiopia, potentially increasing transaction volumes and user stickiness for Safaricom’s Ethiopian operations.

Ethio Telecom Targets $1.8 Billion Revenue Amid Digital Push

Ethio Telecom, the state-owned incumbent and primary competitor to Safaricom Ethiopia, outlined its priorities for the 2026/27 fiscal year on September 7, 2026. The operator set a revenue target of 295 billion birr (approximately $1.8 billion) while accelerating investments in 4G, 5G, fiber, and AI infrastructure. Ethio Telecom is increasingly diversifying into digital platforms, cloud services, fintech, and e-commerce to generate revenue beyond traditional connectivity, intensifying competition in the Ethiopian market.

Local view

Local media outlets have focused heavily on the symbolic significance of Safaricom Ethiopia’s five-year anniversary. KBC Swahili reported that the crossing of the 15 million subscriber mark underscores Safaricom's successful adaptation to the Ethiopian market despite initial regulatory and competitive hurdles. The coverage highlights the company's contribution to digital financial services and community development, framing the expansion as a broader success story for Kenyan business influence in the region.

Context & numbers

The latest data indicates that Safaricom Ethiopia’s growth is driven by rapid subscriber acquisition rather than immediate profitability. While specific Q4 FY26 figures for Ethiopia are not yet fully detailed in this week's snippets, previous reports indicated active customer growth of 46% year-on-year in the June quarter, with losses halving as the operation moves toward EBITDA breakeven. In Kenya, the broader mobile money landscape remains dominant, with agent cash-in and cash-out transactions totaling KES 680.99 billion across 212.29 million transactions in April 2026 alone, according to Central Bank of Kenya data.

On the radar

• Profitability Timeline: Investors are watching closely for Safaricom Group’s next financial update to see if the 15 million subscriber base in Ethiopia translates into improved margin performance or continued losses.
• Regulatory Scrutiny: As M-PESA integrates deeper with local banks like Awash, regulators in Ethiopia may introduce new interoperability or data privacy rules that could affect operational costs.
• Ethio Telecom’s Digital Pivot: The incumbent’s aggressive push into cloud and fintech could lead to price wars or bundled service offerings that challenge Safaricom’s market share in urban centers.