Kenya's M-Pesa, Safaricom and Mobile-Money Rules — 2026-09-14

Top developments

Safaricom Ethiopia crosses 15 million subscribers at five-year mark

On September 4, 2026, Safaricom announced that its Ethiopian subsidiary has surpassed 15 million 90-day active subscribers. This milestone comes exactly five years after the company received its unified licence from the Ethiopian government. The growth underscores the rapid scaling of the venture, which reported a 136% year-on-year increase in service revenue for the half-year ending March 2026, reaching KShs 6.2 billion. This expansion is pivotal for Safaricom’s group results, diversifying revenue away from the saturated Kenyan market.

M-Pesa Ethiopia launches cardless ATM withdrawals with Awash Bank

On September 8, 2026, M-Pesa Ethiopia expanded its cash-out options by partnering with Awash Bank to enable cardless ATM withdrawals. Customers can now withdraw cash directly from supported Awash Bank ATMs using the M-PESA App, reducing reliance on physical agent networks. This move enhances liquidity access in Ethiopia and mirrors the convenience features available in Kenya, potentially boosting transaction volumes and user retention in the new market.

Wave secures West African bank licence, intensifying regional competition

In early September 2026, it was reported that Wave, a major competitor in African fintech, secured a bank licence in West Africa. This development allows Wave to offer broader financial services, including deposits, directly competing with mobile-money operators like M-Pesa. The shift signals a broader industry trend where mobile-money giants are evolving into full-spectrum financial infrastructure providers, challenging traditional telecom-led models.

Local view

Local media outlets have focused heavily on the profitability narrative surrounding Safaricom’s Ethiopian operations. TechTrendsKE highlighted the tension between rapid subscriber growth and the need for commercial sustainability, noting that while user numbers have surged, the path to EBITDA breakeven remains a key metric for investors.

Swahili-language outlet KBC Swahili reported on the milestone as a significant achievement for Kenyan business abroad, emphasizing the job creation and connectivity improvements in Ethiopia. The coverage reflects national pride in Safaricom’s international success while acknowledging the ongoing debate about whether the massive capital expenditure is yielding sufficient returns.

Context & numbers

• Ethiopian Growth: Safaricom Ethiopia’s service revenue grew by 136.0% year-on-year in the first half of FY26, reaching KShs 6.2 billion. Net income for the group was KShs 58.2 billion, up 22.6% YoY.
• M-Pesa Volume: In April 2026, agent cash-in and cash-out transactions in Kenya totalled KES 680.99 billion across 212.29 million transactions, according to Central Bank of Kenya data. This highlights the continued dominance of agent networks despite digital innovations.
• Market Outlook: The Africa mobile money market is projected to grow from USD 1,126 million in 2026 to USD 4,324 million by 2034, at a CAGR of 18.32%.

On the radar

• Ethio Telecom Targets: Ethio Telecom has set a revenue target of 295 billion birr ($1.8 billion) for 2026/27, focusing on 5G, fiber, and fintech services. This aggressive infrastructure push may impact competitive dynamics in the Ethiopian telecom sector where Safaricom operates.
• Regulatory Shifts: Nigerian fintech unicorns are gaining Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) deposit powers, indicating a continent-wide regulatory shift towards allowing mobile-money and fintech platforms to function more like banks. Stakeholders should watch for similar moves by the Central Bank of Kenya regarding agent banking and deposit-taking capabilities.