Peru Anchoveta Quotas and Fishmeal Trade — 2026-09-25
Peru has exempted industrial anchoveta vessel owners from any future quota penalty after the fleet left over 1.4 million tonnes uncaught in the first 2026 North-Central season, while Imarpe launches a 20-vessel survey to gauge stock health ahead of a possible second season. Meanwhile, the El Niño-driven supply crisis is reshaping trade: Vietnam has overtaken Peru as China's top fishmeal supplier, and IFFO warns Peruvian-Chilean shortages could trigger higher global food prices.
Peru Anchoveta Quotas and Fishmeal Trade — 2026-09-25
Top developments
Peru exempts fleet from future quota penalty after disastrous first season
PRODUCE has exempted anchoveta catchers from the mechanism that could reduce future allocations, following a first North-Central season in which juveniles made up nearly two-thirds of observed specimens and the fleet left more than 1.4 million tonnes of its quota uncaught. The first season captured only about 480,000 t of the reduced 1.91 million-t quota — roughly 25%, the lowest in a decade — mainly due to excess juveniles. The exemption removes uncertainty over future allocations as the sector waits for survey results to determine whether a second season is viable.
Imarpe launches 20-vessel survey on anchoveta and pota stocks
A scientific and fishing fleet of 20 vessels is deploying off the Peruvian coast in an operation led by Imarpe to assess with greater precision the state of the anchoveta, pota (jumbo squid) and other pelagic resources. The survey results will be central to any decision on the North-Central second-season quota, after the first season was cut short at just 25% quota compliance. For fishmeal buyers in China and Norway, the outcome will determine how much fresh Peruvian supply reaches the market in Q4.
Vietnam overtakes Peru as China's top fishmeal supplier
In July, Vietnam sent China fishmeal shipments worth $59.7 million, up 112% year-on-year, overtaking Peru as Beijing's top supplier amid the Peruvian supply shortage. Chinese port stocks fell for the first time in five weeks as fishmeal prices remained elevated due to the El Niño supply crisis, with buyers actively turning to Vietnamese and domestic product. This trade rotation is significant for Peru's export revenues and signals that Chinese buyers are diversifying away from dependence on Peruvian steam-dried grades.
IFFO: Peru-Chile shortage risks triggering global food price increases
A report published 22 September warns that the 49% drop in South American fishmeal production is limiting availability of a key input for global aquaculture and livestock feed, raising costs for fish, poultry and pig farming. IFFO's Enrico Bachis noted that reduced South American supply "might be offset by some of the regions in Asia." The shortage underlines how El Niño's impact on the Humboldt system transmits directly into world food prices, with Peruvian anchoveta the central variable.
El Niño strengthening toward a very strong event
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (early September) says El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. IRI's mid-September assessment called the ongoing event of "exceptional strength." A very strong El Niño typically depresses anchoveta recruitment in the Humboldt Current, putting the second-season quota and 2027 outlook at further risk.
Local view
Infobae headlines the story as "Perú y Chile están a punto de gatillar el precio de los alimentos mundiales," framing the South American fishmeal collapse as a global food inflation risk, citing IFFO data on the 49% production decline in West Coast South America. Andina, the state news agency, emphasizes Imarpe's technical role, spotlighting the 20-vessel survey as evidence of a science-led approach to resource management.
Context & numbers
- First 2026 North-Central season: quota of 1.91 million t, catch of ~480,000 t (~25%); over 1.4 million t uncaught; juveniles were close to two-thirds of observed specimens.
- Global output through July 2026: fishmeal down 49%, fish oil down 30%, driven by Peru and Chile (IFFO).
- Vietnam's July fishmeal shipments to China: $59.7 million, +112% y/y, overtaking Peru.
- Peruvian fishmeal prices at Shanghai port held steady this week despite the五-week stock drawdown, remaining at elevated crisis levels.
- Second season southern zone 2026: TAC of 251,000 t, authorized from July 1 to December 31, 2026.
On the radar
- Imarpe's 20-vessel survey results, expected in the coming weeks, will be decisive for a possible second North-Central season announcement.
- Anomalous wave alerts from Tumbes to Chancay between September 26–28, issued by the Peruvian Navy's hydrography directorate — could briefly disrupt port operations and landing activity.
- Undercurrent News is proposing to publish weekly price assessments for four grades of Peruvian steam-dried fishmeal at Shanghai port (Standard, Thai grade, Prime and Super Prime), a sign of deeper price transparency in the China trade.
- US poultry meal prices trading near historic highs as buyers substitute away from fishmeal — a substitution-pressure indicator to watch for Peruvian oil and meal demand recovery.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
Powered by
