Peru Anchoveta Quotas and Fishmeal Trade — 2026-10-09

Top developments

Peru Cancels Second 2026 Anchoveta Season in North-Central Zone

On October 4, 2026, the Ministry of Production (PRODUCE), alongside the National Fisheries Society (SNP) and IMARPE, confirmed that the second industrial fishing season for anchoveta in the North-Central zone will not take place. The decision follows recent hydroacoustic surveys showing that juveniles constituted nearly two-thirds of the biomass, making sustainable extraction impossible under current conditions. This cancellation removes a significant volume of raw material from the market, exacerbating the already tight global supply situation driven by earlier quota reductions.

IFFO Forecasts Lowest Global Fishmeal Supply Since 2016

The International Fishmeal and Fish Oil Organisation (IFFO) projected on October 6, 2026, that global fishmeal production will fall below 4.6 million tonnes in 2026, marking the lowest level in a decade. This decline is primarily attributed to reduced output from Peru and Chile due to El Niño conditions and quota restrictions. Fish oil volumes are also expected to hit their lowest point in ten years, signaling a structural shift in marine ingredient availability that will impact aquaculture costs globally.

Shanghai Fishmeal Prices Rise as Inventories Hit 2026 Low

In week 40 of 2026, offers for Peruvian super prime fishmeal in Shanghai rose by 2.2%, marking the first weekly increase since July. This price movement is directly linked to port inventories hitting their lowest levels for the year, compounded by the confirmation of scarce anchovy biomass in Peru. Buyers are increasingly cautious, anticipating further supply constraints as the season closure becomes formalized.

El Niño Strengthens, WMO Confirms Significant SST Anomalies

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported on October 8, 2026, that sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region increased markedly from +1.6°C above normal in June to +2.5°C above normal in August. This strengthening El Niño event continues to disrupt the Humboldt Current, which is critical for anchoveta reproduction and survival. The persistent warming validates IMARPE’s decision to restrict fishing seasons to protect the stock from overfishing during vulnerable environmental phases.

Local view

Diario de Chimbote, a key regional outlet covering Peru’s primary fishing hub, reported on October 4 that the decision to cancel the second season was reached after high-level meetings between PRODUCE, SNP, and IMARPE officials. Local industry stakeholders acknowledge that while the suspension prevents quota penalties for missing targets, it significantly impacts short-term revenue and plant utilization rates in the northern and central coastal regions. The outlet emphasizes that the "excess of juveniles" finding is the decisive factor, shifting the narrative from pure catch failure to biological conservation necessity.

Context & numbers

• Global Fishmeal Forecast: <4.6 million tonnes for 2026 (lowest since 2016).
• Global Fish Oil Forecast: 1.15 million tonnes (lowest in 10 years).
• Shanghai Price Movement: +2.2% weekly increase in super prime fishmeal prices (Week 40).
• El Niño Intensity: Niño 3.4 SST anomaly at +2.5°C above normal (August 2026).
• Vietnam vs. Peru: Vietnam surpassed Peru as China's top fishmeal supplier in July 2026, with exports worth $59.7 million (+112% YoY), a trend expected to accelerate with Peru's second season closure.

On the radar

• Alternative Protein Surge: Market reports indicate a rapid expansion in the insect protein and algae-based feed sectors, with the global aquafeed & alternative protein market projected to reach USD 109.7 billion by 2036. Producers are accelerating substitution strategies to mitigate marine ingredient scarcity.
• Salmon Feed Efficiency: New studies suggest breeding leaner salmon could cut feed costs by $100 million annually for Norway’s industry, highlighting the financial pressure to optimize feed conversion ratios amid rising ingredient prices.
• Upcoming Survey Results: Stakeholders are awaiting further IMARPE data on the southern zone biomass, which showed a 243% recovery in 2025 but may face different El Niño impacts in late 2026.