Peru Anchoveta Quotas and Fishmeal Trade — 2026-09-14
Peru’s anchoveta fishery remains in a deep crisis, with only 25% of the North-Central quota captured due to El Niño impacts and an excess of juvenile fish. This supply shock has driven global fishmeal prices to record highs, forcing China and other major buyers to pivot toward alternative suppliers like India and Vietnam, while domestic Peruvian production of other species like giant squid faces its own regulatory challenges.
Peru Anchoveta Quotas and Fishmeal Trade — 2026-09-14
Top developments
Peruvian Anchoveta Catch Hits Historic Low, Prices Spike
As of early September 2026, Peru has captured only approximately 480,000 metric tons against a North-Central quota of 1.91 million tons, representing just 25% of the target. The Ministry of Production (PRODUCE) suspended the season in June after IMARPE reported excessive juvenile biomass and unfavorable environmental conditions linked to El Niño. This severe underperformance has eliminated traditional inventory buffers, causing super-prime fishmeal prices to hold at record highs as global supply tightens.
China Pivots to Alternative Suppliers Amidst Peruvian Shortage
Chinese buyers are aggressively diversifying their fishmeal sourcing to mitigate the Peruvian shortfall. In June 2026, imports from Vietnam surged by 55.7% year-on-year, making Vietnam the largest supplier to China for that month. Simultaneously, India has emerged as a key beneficiary, exporting 208,706 tons of fishmeal in the first half of 2026, a 145% increase in value compared to the previous year. This shift underscores the structural vulnerability of relying on a single dominant supplier for aquafeed ingredients.
El Niño Forecast Strengthens, Threatening Future Seasons
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Advisory, indicating a greater than 90% probability of a "very strong" event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. Warming waters have already pushed southern anchoveta stocks northward into areas populated by undersized fish, complicating sustainable harvesting. This climatic outlook suggests that the current supply crunch may persist well into 2027, limiting any near-term recovery in Peruvian landings.
Domestic Overfishing Crisis Hits Giant Squid Sector
While anchoveta is constrained by environmental factors, Peru’s giant squid (pota) fishery is facing a regulatory crisis. More than 9,000 vessels are operating with little control, driving prices down and depleting stocks despite a raised quota of 709,659 tons. PRODUCE has issued 19 new fishing management measures to address these issues, aiming to reactivate artisanal fishing sectors and stabilize markets, but enforcement remains a significant challenge.
Local view
Infobae highlights a growing national debate on economic dependency, asking "Why do we still depend on anchoveta?" The outlet notes that despite decades of scientific research identifying mesopelagic resources, Peru has failed to diversify its fisheries, leaving the economy vulnerable to climate shocks like the current El Niño event.
Gestión reports on PRODUCE's reactive policy measures, including the issuance of 19 specific regulations to combat the effects of El Niño on various fishery resources. The government is attempting to balance conservation with the economic needs of 280,000 tons of artisanal resource targets, though critics argue these measures are insufficient given the scale of the ecological disruption.
Context & numbers
- Quota Utilization: Only ~25% of the North-Central anchoveta quota (1.91 million tons) was captured before suspension.
- Indian Exports: 208,706 tons in H1 2026, valued at $362.4 million (+145% YoY).
- Vietnam Imports: Chinese imports from Vietnam rose 55.7% YoY in June 2026.
- El Niño Probability: >90% chance of a very strong El Niño event in late 2026/early 2027.
On the radar
- Second Season Decision: PRODUCE will soon decide whether to authorize a second North-Central season. Given the poor biomass data and strong El Niño signals, industry insiders expect this season to be canceled or heavily restricted.
- Substitution Economics: Watch for increased investment in insect protein and algae alternatives as salmon farmers in Norway and Chile face higher feed costs.
- Pota Quota Enforcement: Monitor if PRODUCE can effectively curb the 9,000+ unregulated squid vessels, which could impact regional seafood pricing stability.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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