Peru Anchoveta Quotas and Fishmeal Trade — 2026-09-14
Peruvian anchoveta landings have collapsed to just 25% of the allocated quota for the North-Central zone, driven by El Niño conditions and a surplus of juvenile fish. This supply shock has pushed global fishmeal prices to record highs, forcing Chinese buyers to pivot to Indian and Vietnamese suppliers while domestic Peruvian policy focuses on managing alternative species like giant squid. <!-- /headline --> **Peru Anchoveta Crisis: Quota Miss Triggers Global Fishmeal Price Spike**
Peru Anchoveta Quotas and Fishmeal Trade — 2026-09-14
Top developments
Chinese inventories rise despite record Peruvian super-prime prices
As of September 11, fishmeal inventories at major Chinese ports have risen for a sixth consecutive week, even as Peruvian super-prime fishmeal prices hold steady at elevated levels. This divergence suggests that while immediate physical availability is improving due to prior imports and domestic Chinese production, the market remains tight due to the ongoing suspension of Peruvian fishing seasons. The persistence of high prices indicates that buyers are pricing in the long-term risk of a weak 2026-2027 season rather than short-term inventory relief.
El Niño advisory warns of "very strong" event for winter 2026-27
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued an update on September 10 confirming that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% probability of a "very strong" event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies increased from late May to late July 2026, directly impacting the Humboldt Current ecosystem. This forecast is critical for the upcoming Second Season quota decisions, as warmer waters typically push anchoveta stocks north or deeper, making them harder to catch legally and reducing available biomass.
India’s fishmeal exports surge 145% as Peru supply fails
Indian fishmeal exporters reported a 145% surge in H1 2026 earnings, exporting 208,706 tons worth $362.4 million between January and June. This boom is a direct consequence of the Peruvian anchovy shortage, as global aquafeed manufacturers seek alternatives. The shift highlights a structural change in the trade landscape, where traditional reliance on Peru is being mitigated by rapid expansion in South Asian production capacity, though volumes remain insufficient to fully offset the loss of Peruvian super-prime quality.
Local view
Infobae reports that the Peruvian government is facing criticism for its reliance on anchoveta, noting that the country has failed to diversify its fishery sector despite having identified mesopelagic resources and decades of scientific research. The article argues that the current crisis exposes the fragility of a monoculture-based fishery economy.
Meanwhile, Gestión highlights that the Ministry of Production (PRODUCE) has issued 19 specific regulatory measures to combat the impacts of El Niño, aiming to reactivate the artisanal fishing of 280,000 tons of alternative resources to offset the anchoveta deficit.
Context & numbers
- Quota Utilization: Peru captured only 480,000 tons of its 1.91 million ton quota, representing roughly 25% utilization.
- Price Impact: Fishmeal prices have hit historical maxima, with China reportedly running low on strategic inventories of the highest-grade (super-prime) product.
- Alternative Species: The giant squid (pota) fishery is struggling with oversupply due to a lack of control over over 9,000 vessels, causing prices to plummet despite the state's expansion of the quota to 709,659 tons.
On the radar
- Second Season Decision: With El Niño predicted to strengthen through winter, attention turns to IMARPE's next biomass survey. If juvenile abundance remains high, PRODUCE may further restrict or cancel the Second Season for the North-Central zone, which typically begins in November.
- Substitution Trends: The market for soy protein isolate and spirulina meal in aquaculture is accelerating as feed producers seek to reduce dependency on volatile marine ingredients.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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