Vietnam Robusta Coffee and Dak Lak Harvest — 2026-09-24
Central Highlands farmgate robusta prices fell sharply to around 94,000 VND/kg this week, tracking a nearly 4% drop in London robusta futures. Vietnam's 2026/27 export outlook sits at 28.95 million bags per USDA estimates, while the EU's revised EUDR rules — including an extended compliance deadline — landed just weeks ahead of the October harvest start.
Vietnam Robusta Coffee and Dak Lak Harvest — 2026-09-24
Top developments
Farmgate prices slide to around 94,000 VND/kg, London robusta drops nearly 4%
Domestic Central Highlands coffee prices lost up to 1,700 VND/kg this week, with the market dipping below the 94,000 VND/kg level (~94,000 down from higher levels) as ICE London robusta fell back to 3,396 USD/tonne — a near-4% weekly decline pressured by rising ICE exchange inventories. Earlier in the week domestic prices had steadied in a 93,000–93,800 VND/kg band as global robusta briefly recovered. Business Recorder reported Vietnamese robusta eased amid subdued trading activity even as supplies remained. For Dak Lak farmers nearing harvest, lower differentials reduce the incentive to hold beans ahead of the new crop.
New 2025/26 crop set to start in October amid late-season rains
With the new harvest expected to begin on schedule in October across the Central Highlands, late-summer rains continue in the main robusta-growing regions as trees develop the new crop. Vietnamese market observers forecast notably volatile pricing into the new season. Prospective sellers in Dak Lak will be watching whether pre-harvest speculative buying dries up as first new-crop arrivals increase exportable supply.
USDA projects 2026/27 Vietnamese exports at 28.95 million bags
USDA's Coffee Annual report for Vietnam pegs MY 2026/27 exports at 28.95 million bags green bean equivalent — up 2% vs MY 2025/26 and 15% vs MY 2024/25 — while flagging rising global competitiveness and EUDR implementation as the key variables for export performance. That projection underpins the expectation that exporters remain well-supplied through the transition into the new crop.
Revised EUDR: instant coffee added, compliance deadline extended to 2027
The EU published revised anti-deforestation rules this week that both narrow and expand the regulation's scope — notably adding instant coffee — while the European Parliament simplified due-diligence obligations and extended the compliance deadline to 2027. Vietnam's coffee sector is meanwhile betting on deep processing and EUDR compliance as growth drivers for H2 2026 exports. A Lowy Institute analysis published today highlights Vietnam's push for traceable agricultural exports and the challenge of making data work across borders.
Local view
Dak Lak's Department of Industry and Trade continues to publish daily reference farmgate price tables, noting figures are indicative and follow world prices. Vietnamese agricultural outlets (Báo Thế Giới & Việt Nam via baomoi/vietnam.vn) reported domestic coffee prices falling for several consecutive sessions on Sept 18–19 before a batch of negative factors. Dak Lak province also issued Directive 14842/UBND-NNMT pushing accelerated forest and scattered-tree planting for 2026–2030, part of the province's ongoing land-use push that shapes coffee-area dynamics.
Context & numbers
- London robusta (November ICE): fell to ~3,396 USD/tonne, near 4% weekly drop, pressured by rising ICE inventories
- Domestic farmgate (Central Highlands): ~93,000–93,800 VND/kg mid-week, dipping toward/below 94,000 after the London slide
- MY 2026/27 exports: 28.95 million bags GBE, +2% YoY, +15% vs MY 2024/25
- Structural pressure: coffee land conversion to durian, which earns 2.5–3x coffee profit per unit
On the radar
- October harvest start in the Central Highlands — first new-crop arrivals and exporter purchasing pace will set the season's opening price tone
- EUDR implementation timeline shift to 2027 and its effect on pre-Christmas export contracts; watch whether simplification eases or reshuffles smallholder traceability requirements
- ICE exchange inventories: continued builds (the driver of this week's London sell-off) vs. the Vietnam dry-weather watch that markets have flagged in past seasons
- Weather into 2027: prior reporting flagged a strengthening El Niño potentially persisting into early 2027 — an ongoing dry-season risk for the 2026/27 crop's development; treat as forecast, not confirmed damage
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
Powered by
