Vietnam Robusta Coffee and Dak Lak Harvest — 2026-09-04
Vietnamese robusta farmgate prices in the Central Highlands have retreated significantly, dropping to between 93,700 and 95,700 VND/kg as of early September 2026. This decline is driven by a global supply outlook improvement from Brazil and a Rabobank forecast of a sizeable surplus for the 2026/27 coffee year. Meanwhile, new studies indicate that the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will force compliance across all coffee supply chains, not just those destined for Europe, adding pressure on Vietnamese exporters.
Vietnam Robusta Coffee and Dak Lak Harvest — 2026-09-04
Top developments
Farmgate prices drop to lowest levels in months
Farmgate prices for robusta in the Central Highlands, including Dak Lak and Dak Nong, fell to 93,700–94,500 VND/kg on September 4, 2026, down 500–600 VND/kg from previous days. Earlier in the week, prices had hovered around 95,000–95,700 VND/kg before this latest correction. The decline mirrors global trends where London robusta futures dropped nearly 2% on September 3, reflecting easing supply concerns and improved harvest prospects in Brazil. For Dak Lak farmers, this represents a sharp reversal from the highs seen earlier in the summer, impacting immediate revenue per kilogram sold.
Rabobank forecasts sizeable surplus for 2026/27
A significant shift in market sentiment occurred on August 31, 2026, when Rabobank forecasted a sizeable surplus for the 2026/27 coffee year. This prediction contributed to New York arabica futures closing marginally lower at the end of August, while London robusta markets were closed for a holiday but faced downward pressure upon reopening. The expectation of a surplus suggests that current tight supplies may loosen in the coming months, potentially leading to further price adjustments for Vietnamese exporters who have benefited from high prices due to previous supply deficits.
EUDR compliance extends beyond EU-bound shipments
New research published by the non-profit Trase on September 2, 2026, indicates that the EU’s anti-deforestation law (EUDR) will force many coffee firms to ensure all their products meet EU rules, not just those destined for the European market. Since companies supplying the EU handle nearly 80% of worldwide coffee shipments, this effectively makes EUDR compliance a global standard. For Vietnam, which is aiming for $9 billion in coffee exports in 2026, this means smallholders and exporters must invest heavily in traceability systems regardless of their final buyer, increasing operational costs and complexity.
Local view
Local media outlets such as Doanhnghiephoinhap and Baolaocai report that domestic purchasing power remains stable despite the price drop, with no signs of weakening demand from domestic roasters. However, farmers are expressing concern over the rapid price erosion after a period of high profitability. The Dak Lak Department of Industry and Trade continues to publish daily agricultural price tables, noting the volatility and advising stakeholders to monitor global market signals closely. The consensus among local analysts is that while the short-term price dip is painful, the long-term export volume prospects remain strong if compliance hurdles are managed.
Context & numbers
- Farmgate Prices (Sept 4, 2026): 93,700 – 94,500 VND/kg in Central Highlands.
- London Robusta Futures: Dropped nearly 2% on Sept 3, 2026.
- Export Target: Vietnam aims for ~$9 billion in coffee exports in 2026.
- EUDR Impact: Companies supplying the EU handle ~80% of global coffee shipments, making compliance a de facto global requirement.
On the radar
- EUDR Deadline: The EU Deforestation Regulation takes full effect at the end of December 2026; traceability investments are critical now.
- Irrigation Stress: While recent reports noted no drought class in key provinces in mid-season, the strong El Niño signal persists, requiring vigilance regarding water resources for the upcoming dry season.
- Crop Conversion: USDA reports highlight ongoing conversion of coffee land to durian, which offers 2.5–3x higher profits, potentially tightening long-term robusta supply.
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