Zambia Copper Output and Smelter Politics — 2026-10-21
Zambia is navigating a complex geopolitical and operational landscape in October 2026, marked by the reaffirmation of its partnership with UAE investor IRH following funding disputes. While First Quantum’s Kansanshi mine exceeds processing targets, the sector faces looming energy constraints due to a significant cut in Kariba Dam water allocations for 2027. President Hichilema has intensified pressure on mining firms to utilize their licenses actively to meet the 3-million-tonne production target.
Zambia Copper Output and Smelter Politics — 2026-10-21
Top developments
UAE Investor IRH Reaffirms Mopani Commitment After Funding Dispute
Zambia’s state mining firm, ZCCM Investments Holdings, and Abu Dhabi’s International Resources Holding (IRH) have reaffirmed their partnership at the Mopani copper complex. This move follows allegations of funding breaches by IRH, which had previously caused friction in the joint venture. The two entities are now expanding their collaboration beyond Mopani, aiming for larger mining deals in the region. Sheikh Tahnoon’s mining arm has recommitted $1.1 billion to the project to stabilize operations and restore confidence in the Mopani revival strategy.
Kansanshi Mine Exceeds Processing Capacity Targets
First Quantum Minerals reported that its expanded Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia is on track to process approximately 27 million metric tons of ore in 2026. This figure exceeds the facility’s design capacity by 8%, supporting a stronger production outlook for the country’s largest copper producer. This operational success comes as the government pushes for higher output to meet its ambitious 3-million-tonne annual target.
Hichilema Enforces "Use It or Lose It" Mining Policy
Speaking at the 2026 Zambia Mining and Investment Insaka, President Hakainde Hichilema warned against the hoarding of mining licenses. He emphasized a "use it or lose it" policy to ensure that mineral wealth is actively leveraged for national benefit. The President stated that the 3-million-tonne target could be achieved by unlocking stalled projects and increasing exploration across all provinces.
Local view
Local media and former officials are raising alarms about the energy sector's impact on mining stability. Former Energy Minister Yamfwa Mukanga, quoted in Lusaka Times and News Diggers, warned Zambians to prepare for load-shedding in 2027. This warning follows the Zambezi River Authority’s decision to slash water allocations for Kariba Dam power generation by a third, citing El Niño forecasts. Local stakeholders fear that reduced hydropower capacity could disrupt smelter operations and mining outputs, despite recent investments in solar capacity.
Context & numbers
- Copper Output: Zambia produced 447,181 tonnes of copper in the first half of 2026, a marginal 0.45% increase from the same period in 2025.
- Energy Capacity: Zambia surpassed 1 GW of cumulative solar capacity in early October 2026, reaching 1,027 MW, up from 178 MW in 2024.
- Water Allocation: The Zambezi River Authority has cut Kariba Dam water allocation for power generation from 36 billion cubic meters in 2026 to 23 billion cubic meters in 2027.
- Global Smelter Pressure: Treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for copper have turned negative globally, with the annual benchmark settling at $0 per tonne in January 2026, reflecting a global surplus in smelting capacity.
On the radar
- Zimbabwe-Zambia Energy Summit: The two nations are accelerating cross-border energy projects and investment at the Zimbabwe-Zambia Energy Projects Summit in Livingstone, aiming to mitigate power constraints through regional integration.
- World Bank Minerals Support: The World Bank announced plans to boost metals and minerals support fivefold to $19 billion for fiscal 2026-2030, with Zambia among the countries launching new compacts to turn mineral wealth into jobs.
- Geopolitical Competition: Zambia remains a focal point for US, Chinese, and Gulf interests, with recent reports highlighting how these powers compete for access to copper, rail links, and ports following President Hichilema’s re-election.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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