Global House Prices and City Rankings — 2026-09-15

Top developments

Australian market enters prolonged downturn

Recent data from Cotality reveals that property prices are now falling in more than 90% of Australian suburbs, prompting economists to predict a continued market decline that may not rebound until 2028. The Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has suggested a potential 10% fall from the March 2026 peak, which would return prices to end-of-2024 levels, though some analysts argue this scenario is overstated. This trend highlights the sensitivity of the Australian market to interest rate hikes, with a fourth hike looming, significantly impacting affordability rankings for Sydney and Melbourne.

China’s property slump persists in August

China’s new home prices fell 3.0% year-on-year in August 2026, a slight easing from July’s 3.2% drop, according to Reuters calculations. This sustained decline underscores the ongoing drag on the Chinese economy from the years-long property crisis, affecting global investor sentiment and real estate returns in the region. The continued fall suggests that current stimulus measures have yet to stabilize the residential sector, keeping bubble-risk indicators elevated despite falling nominal prices.

Germany hits 20-year low in homeownership

Germany has recorded its lowest homeownership rate in twenty years, ranking last among European nations in this metric. High construction costs and increased interest rates have made buying unaffordable for the majority, leading to a structural shift toward renting. This trend is reshaping affordability rankings, as long-term rental dependence becomes the norm rather than the exception for younger demographics.

1 sources

n-tv.de

n-tv.de

Tokyo apartments breach ¥100 million mark

In a stark contrast to Western markets, the average price of new condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area reached ¥101.35 million in the first half of 2026, breaking the ¥100 million threshold for the first time. This represents a 13.1% year-on-year increase, driven by luxury demand and supply constraints in central districts. Tokyo’s rising prices are pulling it further up global city rankings, challenging traditional leaders like London and New York on a price-per-square-meter basis.

Local view

The Guardian (Australia): Analysts argue that while high-end properties face steep falls, the affordable end of the market remains resilient as investors exit and first-time buyers enter, suggesting a stabilization rather than a crash.

City A.M. (UK): London’s appeal in global city rankings remains strong but is increasingly "hurt" by housing costs, with economists citing poor supply as the primary driver of the affordability crisis.

Diamond (Japan): Local media highlights the brand-value premium in the Japanese market, noting that top-tier developers are driving the record-breaking average prices in the capital.

Context & numbers

• Australia: Home prices fell 3.1% recently, with Cotality data showing declines in >90% of suburbs.
• China: New home prices down 3.0% YoY in August 2026.
• Japan: Average new condo price in Greater Tokyo: ¥101.35 million (+13.1% YoY).
• Germany: Homeownership rate at lowest level in 20 years; last place in Europe for ownership rates.

On the radar

• RBA Rate Decisions: Watch for further interest rate adjustments in Australia, which could accelerate or stabilize the current price decline.
• OECD Affordability Updates: Upcoming releases from the OECD and BIS will provide Q2/Q3 comparative data on real house prices across advanced economies, likely confirming divergences between falling markets (Canada, US, UK) and stable/rising ones.