Housing Supply, Zoning and the YIMBY Fight — 2026-09-12

Top developments

US Housing Starts Surge While Completions Lag

Data released in August 2026 for July showed privately-owned housing completions at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,212,000 units. This figure is below the revised June rate of 1,214,000, indicating a potential bottleneck in finalizing units despite construction activity. Conversely, housing starts jumped significantly in June to 1,427,000 units, the highest in three months, suggesting a pipeline of future supply that may alleviate pressure if labor and material constraints ease.

French Housing Crisis Dominates Presidential Campaign

As of September 9, 2026, French real estate developers are reporting their lowest sales volumes in history, pushing the housing crisis to the top of the presidential election agenda. Le Figaro reports that right-wing and left-wing candidates are offering diametrically opposed solutions, ranging from deregulation to increased public housing investment. This political polarization highlights the severity of the supply crunch in France, where new residential reservations have dropped significantly.

California Advances Key Zoning and Permitting Bills

California’s 2025-2026 legislative session ended with a suite of housing bills moving to Governor Newsom, focusing on ADU rules, permitting disclosures, and transit-oriented zoning changes. The HousingWire report notes these measures aim to streamline approvals and increase density near transit hubs, continuing the state's aggressive YIMBY policy trajectory. These bills represent the culmination of nearly two years of legislative effort to address the state's chronic shortage.

Honolulu Explores Auckland-Style Upzoning

A new brief from the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO), published September 11, 2026, analyzes the potential impact of upzoning 75% of Honolulu, mirroring Auckland’s 2016 reforms. The study suggests that such drastic zoning changes could significantly boost supply and lower costs, offering a template for other high-cost island markets. This research adds academic weight to calls for "upzoning everywhere" in constrained geographic areas.

Local view

In France, local industry voices are increasingly vocal about the disconnect between political promises and market realities. SeLoger’s September 2026 back-to-school conference highlighted that despite some stabilization in prices, the volume of new constructions continues to fall short of demand. Developers warn that without immediate regulatory relief on permits and financing, the "recovery" seen in some metrics is fragile and uneven across regions.

Context & numbers

• US Completions: July 2026 annualized rate at 1,212,000 units; single-family completions down 5.8% from June.
• US Starts: June 2026 starts rose 19% to 1,427,000 units, beating forecasts of 1,310,000.
• French Permits: July 2026 building permits fell 2.5% year-over-year, while groundbreakings (mises en chantier) rose 8.9%, indicating a lag between approval and physical construction.
• Shortage Estimates: Recent analyses continue to cite a national shortage, with specific estimates varying by methodology, but consensus remains that supply lags household formation in high-growth metros.

On the radar

• Governor Newsom’s Signature: Watch for the official signing status of the California housing bill package, which includes critical ADU and transit-oriented development reforms.
• French Election Debates: Expect housing supply proposals to feature prominently in upcoming televised debates as the presidential campaign intensifies.
• Census August Data: The next release of New Residential Construction data will reveal if the June surge in starts translates into August/September activity or if the completion lag persists.