US Housing: Sales, Builders and Mortgage Rates — 2026-09-25
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate topped 7% this week for the first time since January 2025, after five consecutive weekly increases and following the Fed's quarter-point rate hike. Lennar's Q3 earnings miss and guidance cut deepened worries about builder demand — yet Berkshire Hathaway bought roughly 10% of the company. Existing-home sales have dropped below the 4-million annualized pace, underscoring an affordability squeeze for first-time buyers.
US Housing: Sales, Builders and Mortgage Rates — 2026-09-25
Top developments
Mortgage rates cross 7% for the first time since January 2025
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate surpassed 7% this week — reported at 7.03% as a cycle high — marking the first time above that threshold since January 2025 and the highest level of either of Donald Trump's presidential terms. Rates have climbed more than a full percentage point since the US conflict with Iran began, and rose for five consecutive weeks. Freddie Mac's weekly survey as of 09/24/2026 confirmed the grim milestone, even as the agency notes the market remains supported by a solid labor market.
Fed hike and inflation fight push home sales below 4 million
A unanimous quarter-point Fed rate hike pushed the federal funds rate higher, and existing-home sales have dropped below a 4-million annualized pace. "This is the pain that comes with bringing inflation down," Julia Coronado, founder of Macro Policy Perspectives, said on Marketplace on September 21. The Guardian ties the 7% mortgage rate directly to the Fed's decision to raise rates amid high prices and stagnant wages.
Lennar misses Q3, cuts deliveries — and Buffett buys 10%
Lennar reported Q3 2026 results (Sept. 16 report, covered widely this week) showing a 9.2% drop in new orders, gross margin of 15.8%, incentives falling to 12% of sales price, and a full-year delivery target cut to 80,000–81,000 homes. The stock hit a 52-week low. In a striking counter-move, Berkshire Hathaway bought roughly 10% of Lennar — a $212 million purchase — the day after the guidance cut, expanding its broader housing bets.
What this means for buyers
With the 30-year fixed at ~7.03%, affordability is at a cycle-worst for many shoppers, and the shift toward buyers' leverage noted earlier this month is being offset by sticker shock from financing costs. Builders like Lennar are leaning on incentives — down to 12% — and faster, cheaper construction to keep deals alive, but first-time buyers face the double bind of elevated rates and still-high median prices.
Local view
Spanish-language media across the US is focused on the 7% milestone and its impact on Hispanic buyers. AP en Español reported that the average long-term mortgage rate rose above 7% for the first time since January 2025 after five straight weekly increases. La Opinión wrote that while sector activity slowed in late summer, rising rates are further freezing the market. Univision highlighted that refinance applications have plunged 65% as rates hit 16-month highs, with outsized effects on Latino buyers. Mexico's Milenio, citing the Financial Times, tied the rise to pressure in the 30-year Treasury market.
Context & numbers
- Freddie Mac PMMS weekly averages as of 09/24/2026 put the 30-year fixed above 7% (reported at 7.03% by 24/7 Wall St.), first time since January 2025.
- Rates up more than a full percentage point since the start of the US–Iran conflict.
- Existing-home sales below a 4-million annualized pace. Median existing-home price was most recently reported at $431,400 (July data) with a 4.6-month supply.
- Lennar Q3 2026: orders -9.2%, gross margin 15.8%, incentives 12%, FY26 deliveries cut to 80,000–81,000 homes; $1.2B cash, $3.6B total liquidity.
- Berkshire Hathaway bought
10% of Lennar ($212 million).
On the radar
- NAR's next existing-home sales release is scheduled for Tuesday, October 13, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.
- Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey releases each Thursday at 10 a.m. — watch whether 7%+ holds for a second week.
- Whether Berkshire continues adding to Lennar and other homebuilder positions — analysts flag its purchases as a contrarian bet that the worst affordability headlines fade.
- Watch whether builder incentives stay near 12% or fall further as fall selling season progresses — a sign of how deep the demand squeeze runs.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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