주요 사건 및 군사/외교적 동향

First Contact Talks, But Wide Gaps Remain: A senior Iranian official stated on September 23 in New York that negotiations between the US and Iran are "still far apart," and President Pezeshkian vowed that Iran will not surrender. The BBC reported that these were the first talks held since the June ceasefire collapse, following intermittent clashes between the two nations.

Conditions for Hormuz Reopening Delivered: On September 22, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff during the UN General Assembly. According to Iranian state media, Iran's conditions for reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz were conveyed to the US side during this meeting.

Continued Slump in Hormuz Vessel Traffic: On Tuesday, September 22, only three commercial vessels passed through the strait, down from four the previous day and well below the 10-day moving average of about 15. Preliminary shipping data shows that traffic volumes remain low.

Oil Price Volatility: Oil prices initially trended downward on September 23 amid optimism over negotiations and recovering Gulf supplies, but closed up about 4% in mixed trading, reflecting Iranian President Pezeshkian's "no surrender" remarks. Prices fell again on September 24 after Iran signaled openness to diplomacy to end the war.

Diplomatic Opening Seized During the UN General Assembly: In his UN General Assembly speech, President Trump sent mixed messages of hardline pressure and negotiation, stating that a deal with Iran could happen after the US midterms while warning that the alternative is to "annihilate" Iran. Trump also met with Middle Eastern leaders during the UN session; while they hope for the reopening of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, they remain cautious about giving Iran excessive influence.

Direct Impact on Shipping and Energy Markets: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below the 10-day average, showing that the strait issue has become a core bargaining chip—with Iran presenting conditions for reopening while vessel traffic stays depressed.

Structuring Broader Shocks: The OECD analyzed on September 23 that AI-driven investments are partially cushioning the Middle Eastern energy shock for now, but warned that deeper-rooted energy shocks pose a burden on the 2027 outlook. Brookings also assessed that Asia's economic security is precariously unstable among the long-term fallout of the Iran war.

US President Donald Trump: Announced in his UN General Assembly speech that an agreement with Iran is "possible after the midterms," while simultaneously issuing a warning that the worst-case alternative would be to "annihilate the Islamic Republic." He also mentioned that the next meeting between US and Iranian officials has been scheduled for "very shortly."

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian: Criticized President Trump on September 23 for a "bullying mentality" and vowed that Iran will never surrender in a war with the US. However, Iranian presidential office readouts noted that his words also hinted at a lingering hope for a diplomatic resolution.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: Confirmed via Iranian state media that during his September 22 meeting with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Iran conveyed its explicit conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz (lifting the maritime blockade, guaranteeing frozen Iranian assets, and ending military operations).

Iranian Assessment of Talks: A senior Iranian official described the negotiations on September 23 as showing wide gaps and lacking progress between the two countries.