Turkey & Eurasia Business — 2026-09-26
Growth forecasts for Türkiye are being revised downward, with the EBRD citing weak domestic demand, persistent inflation, and regional conflict impacts. An analysis of the country's positioning as an AI gateway between Europe and Central Asia adds a strategic counterpoint to the gloomier macro picture.
Turkey & Eurasia Business — 2026-09-26
Key Highlights
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EBRD cuts Türkiye's 2026 growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.5%, citing weak domestic demand, high inflation, expensive credit, and the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, though it expects a rebound in 2027
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OECD also lowers the outlook, cutting Turkey's growth forecast to its lowest rate since 2020 and reducing the 2027 projection to 3.6% in its latest outlook, "Navigating Successive Shocks"
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Stubborn inflation weighing on business investment, making it increasingly difficult for firms to plan ahead, per AGBI analysis
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Lira edges weaker: USD/TRY rose to 48.86 on September 24, 2026, up 0.28% on the day and down 17.82% over the past 12 months
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Türkiye's AI gateway thesis: A new analysis argues Türkiye can position itself as an AI bridge between Europe and Central Asia as the technology moves from experimentation to economic transformation
Analysis
The dominant development this week is the convergence of institutional downgrades. The EBRD's cut to 3.0% and the OECD's reduction to the lowest growth rate since 2020 signal that external forecasters — and by extension investors — see the inflation-and-expensive-credit environment persisting longer than hoped. For businesses, the practical constraint is planning: AGBI's analysis highlights how persistent inflation deters investment horizons. Against this, the AI-gateway framing suggests Türkiye's strategic tech positioning remains intact even as macro headwinds build.
What to Watch
- 2027 rebound narratives: The EBRD expects recovery in 2027; any signs of disinflation or rate cuts will be read as confirmation
- Lira trajectory: With the currency down nearly 18% year-on-year, further weakness would amplify imported inflation pressures
- AI and Central Asia positioning: Expect more policy emphasis on technology as an export and connectivity sector amid slower conventional growth
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