Turkey & Eurasia Business — 2026-10-11

Key Highlights

• Startup Funding Surge: Türkiye's startup ecosystem raised $274 million in the first nine months of 2026. The growth is primarily powered by the dominance of the gaming sector, a new unicorn emerging from Izmir, and a surge in AI-focused ventures.
• Manufacturing Growth: Industry and Technology Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacır stated that Türkiye has doubled its share of global manufacturing value added (MVA) over the past two decades, highlighting the country's increasing industrial weight.
• Economic Outlook: The World Bank reported that Türkiye's economic growth is expected to ease to 2.8% in 2026, down from 3.7% in 2025. The slowdown is attributed to tighter economic policies and higher prices for imported energy.
• Lira Performance: As of October 9, 2026, the USD/TRY exchange rate stood at 49.2600, showing a slight increase of 0.03% from the previous session. Over the past month, the Turkish Lira has weakened by 1.49%.

Analysis

The most significant business development this week is the divergence between Turkey's robust tech sector performance and its broader macroeconomic cooling. While the World Bank forecasts a deceleration in overall GDP growth to 2.8% due to restrictive monetary policies and energy costs, the tech sector remains resilient. With $274 million raised in just nine months and a new unicorn from Izmir, the startup ecosystem appears to be decoupling from traditional industrial headwinds. This suggests that capital is flowing specifically toward high-growth, export-oriented digital sectors like gaming and AI, even as traditional industries face pressure from inflation-fighting measures.

What to Watch

• Monetary Policy Impact: Investors should monitor how tighter economic policies continue to affect domestic demand and imported energy costs, which are key drivers behind the World Bank's revised growth forecast for 2026.
• Tech Sector Valuations: With the emergence of new unicorns and sustained funding in gaming and AI, watch for potential exits or further valuation spikes in Istanbul and Izmir-based startups, which are becoming regional hubs.