Turkey & Eurasia Business — 2026-09-09
Turkey has officially launched its Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2027–2029, revising its 2026 growth forecast down to 3.3% and raising the inflation outlook to 28.4% due to regional geopolitical tensions. Simultaneously, the country is positioning itself as a global tech hub with the inaugural GITEX Ai Türkiye event kicking off in Istanbul, while new industrial policies aim to boost high-tech exports.
Turkey & Eurasia Business — 2026-09-09
Key Highlights
- Revised Economic Forecasts: Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz announced that Turkey has revised its growth forecast for 2026 from 3.8% down to 3.3%. The government now expects inflation to reach 28.4%, a significant increase driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its impact on energy and logistics costs.
- Business Sector Reaction: Leading Turkish business organizations have welcomed the new Medium-Term Program (OVP) for 2027–2029. They noted that the roadmap emphasizes production, exports, and sustainable growth, though they stressed the critical need to improve companies' access to finance to meet these targets.
- GITEX Ai Türkiye Launches: The inaugural GITEX Ai Türkiye 2026 event is gathering international startup ecosystems in Istanbul this week (September 9–10). More than 300 companies, startups, and global investors are participating to bridge startup ecosystems across continents.
- New Industrial Programs: The Ministry of Industry and Technology has unveiled new programs designed to facilitate the development and production of critical products and technologies through domestic means, aiming to boost high-tech production and global exports.
Analysis
The most significant business development this week is the formal adoption of the 2027–2029 Medium-Term Program, which signals a shift in macroeconomic expectations. The downward revision of the 2026 growth forecast to 3.3% and the upward adjustment of inflation to 28.4% reflect a realistic assessment of external shocks, particularly from the Middle East conflict. For businesses, this confirms that tight monetary conditions and high inflation will persist longer than previously hoped. However, the emphasis on "production, exports and sustainable growth" in the MTP suggests the government remains committed to an export-led recovery model, likely maintaining support for manufacturing sectors despite the challenging macro environment.
What to Watch
- Implementation of Industrial Incentives: Investors should monitor how quickly the newly unveiled industrial programs for "critical products" are translated into concrete incentives for high-tech manufacturing. This could present opportunities in defense, electronics, and green tech supply chains.
- Currency Volatility: With the USD/TRY exchange rate rising to approximately 48.46 on September 8, 2026, and the lira weakening 1.58% over the past month, importers and exporters must hedge against continued depreciation.
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