이란 전쟁과 트럼프의 행보, 최신 소식 (May 14)
Iran Conflict Update|27 min read9.3AI quality score — automatically evaluated based on accuracy, depth, and source quality
트럼프 대통령이 중국 정상회담을 위해 떠난 가운데, 이란은 미국의 평화안을 거부하며 긴장이 최고조에 달했어요. 국제에너지기구(IEA)는 원유 공급 부족을 경고했고, 미국 내 물가는 3년 만에 최고치를 찍었습니다. 정전 상태는 사실상 '생명 유지 장치' 수준이에요.
Iran War News — May 14, 2026
Top Developments
IEA Warns of Global Oil Supply Shortfall Due to Iran War
- What happened: In a report released on May 13, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the war in Iran is severely disrupting Middle Eastern oil production and depleting reserves at an unprecedented rate, likely leading to a global supply deficit this year.
- Impact: This reverses previous IEA forecasts that had predicted a surplus.
- Background: The situation stems from prolonged supply disruptions caused by transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz and damage to production facilities within Iran.
Iran Declares "No Retreat," Talks with U.S. Stall
- What happened: On May 13, Iran publicly declared "no retreat" regarding the U.S. peace proposal. While Vice President Vance claimed the U.S. was "making progress," the gap between the two sides remains wide.
- Impact: The stalemate has left the ceasefire effectively toothless.
- Background: Iran has labeled the U.S. proposal a "surrender document," demanding compensation and recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump Warns of Resumed Attacks Before China Summit
- What happened: On May 12, President Trump told reporters that while the war is "very much under control," Iran would face new attacks if they fail to reach a deal.
- Impact: Although a ceasefire is technically in place, Trump personally described it as being on "life support."
- Background: The U.S. has dismissed Iran's latest demands as "unacceptable."
Iran War-Driven Inflation Hits 3.8%, Highest in 3 Years
- What happened: According to a May 12 Washington Post report, surging energy costs from the Iran war pushed U.S. inflation to 3.8% in April, the highest level since late 2023.
- Impact: Skyrocketing gasoline prices are identified as the primary driver.
- Background: President Trump hopes to suspend the federal gas tax, though this would require Congressional approval.
Military Operations
- Strait of Hormuz Dispute: According to the May 12 special report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Iran is demanding recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz as a core condition for peace.
- Iranian Parliament Warning: A spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee threatened "heavy and decisive" retaliation against U.S. ships and regional bases if Iranian vessels are attacked.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s Hearing: On May 12, Secretary Hegseth and other U.S. officials faced intense questioning in the House regarding the costs of the Iran war and ongoing military operations.
Diplomatic & Political Front
U.S. / White House
- President Trump stated the war is "very much under control" before leaving for the China summit but was clear that attacks would resume without a deal.
- Vice President Vance continues to insist the U.S. is "making progress," despite public denials from Iranian officials.
Iran / Tehran
- Iran reaffirmed its "no retreat" stance on May 13.
- The parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee continues to frame the U.S. peace plan as a "surrender."
Israel
- According to the Jerusalem Post on May 13, Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Mossad reportedly held secret meetings with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed during the war.
- Israel is closely monitoring Iran's nuclear program; the Independent reports that Iran has threatened to accelerate its nuclear program if the U.S. launches new attacks.
International Community (UN, EU, Major Nations)
- India: Reuters reported on May 13 that India is implementing emergency economic measures to protect its economy from the oil price shocks caused by the war.
- UK Parliament: The House of Commons Library updated its research briefing on the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict and the UK’s response on May 13.
- ISW Assessment: The ISW notes that Iran’s strategic intent is to use control over the Strait of Hormuz as a tool for deterrence.
Economic & Market Impact
- Oil Prices: Prices rose for the third consecutive session as of May 12. Concerns over long-term supply disruptions due to the stalled talks are keeping prices elevated after breaking past the four-year high of $126 per barrel.
- Financial Markets: Investors are adopting a cautious approach as the economic fallout of the war becomes increasingly visible, per the New York Times on May 12.
- Energy Supply: The IEA warns that the war has fundamentally shifted the global energy balance from surplus to deficit, directly fueling the 3.8% inflation rate.
Humanitarian Situation
- Civilian Casualties: Casualties continue to mount, including students, medics, migrant workers, and journalists.
- Nuclear Anxiety: The threat of an accelerated nuclear program is causing widespread panic and evacuation fears among civilians in the region.
- Impact on Developing Nations: Vulnerable populations in countries like India are being hit hardest by the war-induced energy price hikes.
Expert Analysis
- ISW (Institute for the Study of War): Analysts argue that Iran's demand for sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is not just a tactic, but a move to build strategic deterrence, representing a "red line" for the U.S.
- IEA Outlook: The IEA warns that structural shifts in the energy market are likely to cause a sustained crisis throughout the year rather than a short-term shock.
- CNN Business: Some economists suggest the long-term impact might ironically accelerate global diversification of energy investments, though short-term pain is unavoidable.
At a Glance
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Tension | Critical |
| Conflict Intensity | Ceasefire nominal; high risk of renewed clashes |
| Brent Oil Price | Adjusted slightly after exceeding $126/bbl |
| Strait of Hormuz | Restricted — Iran using it as leverage |
| Diplomatic Status | Stalled — Iran rejects U.S. proposal |
| Next Milestone | Trump-China summit; looming deadline for ceasefire |
What to Watch Next
- Trump-China Summit Results: Whether China joins in pressuring Iran could be the key turning point for negotiations.
- Nuclear Program Acceleration: Any signs of Iran speeding up its nuclear program could trigger an urgent IAEA response and further U.S. military action.
- Ceasefire Collapse: Keep a close watch on Iran's official statements; the "life support" phase of the ceasefire could end at any moment.
- Energy Shortages: The persistence of supply deficits will dictate global economic stability over the next several weeks.
Reader Action Items
- Check Travel Advisories: If you have travel plans to Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, UAE, Kuwait, or Qatar, check the latest government advisories (e.g., ).
- Review Investments: Monitor your portfolio's energy exposure and consider safe-haven assets (gold, yen) given the volatile market conditions.
- Follow Reliable Sources: Bookmark Reuters' dedicated Iran war page (), the Al Jazeera live blog, and daily reports from the ISW ().
- Track Official Channels: Keep an eye on updates from the IAEA (@IAEAorg) and official state department briefings regarding nuclear developments.
Sources & Reliability
Key Sources: Reuters, The New York Times, Al Jazeera, The Guardian, The Independent, ISW, The Washington Post, The Jerusalem Post, Times of Israel, IEA, CNN Business.
Notes on Reliability:
- The ISW special report is a primary, high-reliability analytical source.
- The report on the secret Trump-Netanyahu-UAE meeting is an exclusive from the Jerusalem Post and has not yet been independently verified by other outlets.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
Explore related topics
Powered by
