Commodity Watch — 2026-05-17
Energy markets dominated commodity headlines as crude oil surged over 4% on May 15, with Brent hitting $109.26/bbl amid an ongoing Middle East conflict that has erased nearly 1 billion barrels of global supply over the past 75 days. Precious metals took a sharp reversal, with gold shedding over 2% and silver plunging more than 9% as rising oil prices stoked inflation fears and rate uncertainty. Agricultural commodities fell across the board, with wheat down 3.4% and corn off 2.5%, while natural gas continued climbing on seasonal demand shifts.
Commodity Watch — 2026-05-17
Today's Price Snapshot
| Commodity | Price | Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil | $105.42/bbl | +4.20% | ↑ up |
| Brent Crude | $109.26/bbl | +3.35% | ↑ up |
| Natural Gas | $2.96/MMBtu | +2.28% | ↑ up |
| Gold | $4,547.89/t.oz | -2.22% | ↓ down |
| Silver | $75.747/t.oz | -9.18% | ↓ down |
| Copper | $6.2515/lb | -4.81% | ↓ down |
| Wheat | 635.75¢/bu | -3.38% | ↓ down |
| Corn | 455.75¢/bu | -2.51% | ↓ down |
Top Stories
Nearly 1 Billion Barrels of Oil Supply Lost in 75 Days — Markets Still Underreacting
Global oil prices have climbed nearly 50% since the end of February, yet analysts say the rise still understates the scale of supply destruction caused by the Iran war. The conflict, now 75 days old, has wiped out an estimated 1 billion barrels from global supply, far exceeding the price response. MarketWatch's Myra Saefong warned that investors may not be fully pricing in the ongoing risks.
Copper Hits All-Time Record High — AI Demand Only Part of the Story
Copper futures touched all-time record highs in the past week, with the MarketWatch futures table showing $6.2895/lb on May 15 (still elevated despite a -4.87% daily pullback from the record). A key driver beyond AI infrastructure demand: the Iran conflict has created what analysts are calling a "Strait of Hormuz problem" for copper refining supply chains.
Morgan Stanley Warns Strait of Hormuz Closure Could Push Brent to $150/bbl by Summer
Investment bank Morgan Stanley raised the alarm that crude oil prices are being held in check relative to the risk of a full Hormuz closure. Analysts warned that if the strait remains blocked into summer, Brent could surge to $150/barrel — a threshold that would send shockwaves through the global economy, from fuel costs to food prices.
Energy Markets
WTI crude surged 4.20% to $105.42/bbl on May 15, while Brent gained 3.35% to $109.26/bbl, extending an extraordinary rally that has seen crude oil prices climb roughly 83% year-to-date and 70% year-over-year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's May Short-Term Energy Outlook, published days before this report, estimates global oil inventories are falling by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, supporting prices around the $106/bbl level for Brent in May and June before an expected easing as Middle East production recovers. The EIA projects Brent could retreat to $89/bbl by Q4 2026 and $79/bbl beyond that as supply recovers.
The broader energy complex moved strongly higher: TTF European natural gas surged 5.27% to €50.17/MWh, UK gas rose 5.89% to 123.66 GBp/thm, and heating oil gained 3.78% to $4.05/gallon. U.S. natural gas climbed 2.28% to $2.96/MMBtu, recovering from earlier seasonal softness. American Gas Association data published May 15 noted that mild shoulder-season demand and healthy storage injections have weighed on domestic natural gas prices ahead of summer, though production has held resilient year-over-year.
Precious Metals & Industrial
Gold fell sharply on May 15, dropping 2.22% to $4,547.89/t.oz — its lowest level since March 2026 — as surging oil prices stoked inflation fears and added to uncertainty over global interest rates. Silver was hammered even harder, plunging 9.18% to $75.747/t.oz. The selloff reflects a familiar dynamic: when energy prices spike on geopolitical risk, bond yields rise alongside inflation expectations, reducing the appeal of non-yielding precious metals. LiteFinance analysis noted that gold is testing key support levels after losing about 5% over the past four weeks, despite remaining up nearly 42% year-over-year.
Copper also retreated sharply — down 4.81% to $6.2515/lb — after briefly touching all-time record highs earlier in the week. The pullback is being characterized as profit-taking after an extraordinary run tied to AI data center buildout demand and Strait of Hormuz supply chain disruptions to copper refining. Aluminum fell 2.44% to $3,564/t, while tin dropped 2.48%. Notably, neodymium — a critical rare earth for electric vehicle motors — was down slightly on the session but remains up 85.9% year-over-year, and germanium surged 1.25% on the day to sit 35% above year-ago levels.
Agriculture
Agricultural commodities broadly declined on May 15. Wheat dropped 3.38% to 635.75¢/bu — though the grain remains up 25.4% year-to-date and 21.1% year-over-year, reflecting persistent supply concerns linked to Middle East-driven trade disruption and Black Sea shipping risks. Corn fell 2.51% to 455.75¢/bu, paring recent gains that had brought prices about 3.5% higher year-to-date. Soybeans slid 1.30% to 1,177¢/bu. Coffee declined 3.19%, cotton dropped 3.97%, and orange juice fell sharply by 9.29%. On the positive side, rice gained on a monthly basis, up 16% in the past month, while oats rose 0.55% on the session. The broader agricultural complex continues to be influenced by Middle East conflict-related shipping costs pushing up global food trade expenses.
What to Watch
- Strait of Hormuz negotiations: Any breakthrough or breakdown in U.S.-Iran diplomacy could swing oil prices $10–$20/bbl in either direction; watch for White House statements after Trump called Iran's latest offer "totally unacceptable"
- EIA weekly petroleum inventory report: Due mid-week; will confirm whether the record 8.5 million b/d global draw rate is persisting or easing
- Fed speakers: With oil prices stoking fresh inflation fears, any Fed comments on the rate path will be closely watched — precious metals and agricultural futures are highly sensitive to rate expectations
- American Gas Association weekly supply data: Natural gas storage builds are key to determining whether the seasonal demand uptick will translate into a sustained price recovery above $3/MMBtu
- Copper supply chain watch: Any escalation in Hormuz-related disruption to copper refining (outside the Middle East but dependent on tanker traffic) could push copper back toward and beyond its record high
- U.S. diesel supply: Analysts warn U.S. households face pain beyond gasoline — diesel, which powers trucks, trains, and tractors, is approaching record highs, with potential summer shortages if record oil exports continue drawing down domestic supply
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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