Commodity Watch — 2026-05-12

Today's Price Snapshot

Top Stories

Trump Calls Iran's Peace Offer "Totally Unacceptable," Oil Surges

U.S. stock futures fell and oil prices surged on Sunday after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest response to a U.S. proposal to end the ongoing Middle East war, calling it "totally unacceptable." Brent crude jumped sharply in early trading as markets priced in renewed risk of escalation. The development reversed hopes for a near-term diplomatic resolution that had briefly pressured oil prices earlier last week.

Silver Posts Explosive 7%+ Single-Day Gain

Silver staged one of its most dramatic single-session rallies of 2026, surging more than 7% to $86.10/t.oz on May 11, with an 18.41% weekly gain. The move reflects a combination of safe-haven demand tied to Middle East conflict, rising industrial demand expectations, and a broader precious metals rally as gold retested record highs. Silver is now up over 164% year-over-year — one of the standout performers across all commodity classes.

Global Grain Prices Diverge as Wheat, Corn Slip in Europe

European wheat prices softened as Matif futures retreated following earlier strength, with technical signals indicating overbought conditions and encouraging market participants to take profits. U.S. wheat and corn, however, edged modestly higher on the day. The divergence highlights the split between U.S. domestic supply/demand dynamics — still feeling the effects of weather disruptions and export activity — and European markets working off recent speculative froth.

Energy Markets

Oil markets remain firmly in geopolitical risk territory. Brent crude climbed to $104.24/barrel on May 11, up nearly 3% on the session, as Trump's rejection of Iran's latest peace proposal reignited fears of a prolonged conflict. Earlier in the week, Brent had briefly pulled back from 2026 highs amid reports of diplomatic progress — but those gains proved short-lived. The pattern of "one step forward, two steps back" in U.S.-Iran negotiations has kept traders on edge and volatility elevated. Year-over-year, Brent is up over 60%.

Natural gas was the standout energy mover on May 11, jumping 6.25% to $2.929/MMBtu in a single session and extending a strong weekly gain of 2.18%. European gas benchmarks also surged — TTF Gas rose 5.80% to €46.70/MWh and UK Gas gained 5.15% — reflecting a broader tightening in global LNG supply chains. The ongoing Middle East war has disrupted shipping routes and created persistent uncertainty for energy importers. Meanwhile, a MarketWatch report flagged that record U.S. oil exports could trigger domestic diesel and gasoline supply shortages heading into peak summer travel season, with diesel already at $5.67/gallon nationally.

Precious Metals & Industrial

Gold held near record territory, trading at $4,735.65/t.oz on May 11, up 0.42% on the day. Earlier in May, gold had dipped to around $4,699 as brief optimism over a potential Iran ceasefire reduced safe-haven buying — but the metal quickly recovered as diplomatic hopes faded. A MarketWatch analysis noted that gold has climbed back above a key short-term technical trend line, suggesting the metal may be regaining upside momentum after a period of consolidation since the Iran conflict began.

Silver stole the show in the metals complex, surging 7.19% to $86.10/t.oz on May 11 — its strongest session in weeks. Silver has now gained 18.41% over the past week, and is up a remarkable 164% year-over-year, as industrial demand for the metal in solar panels and electronics combines with elevated safe-haven appetite. Copper also had a strong session, rising 3.10% to $6.44/lb, with an 11.18% weekly gain driven by expectations of renewed Chinese infrastructure spending and tightening supply from disrupted mining operations.

Agriculture

Grain markets showed mixed performance in the May 11 session. U.S. wheat futures edged up 0.95% to 613.25¢/bushel and corn gained 1.04% to 461.00¢/bushel, while European wheat (Matif futures) softened after a strong run — with technical analysis pointing to overbought conditions that prompted profit-taking. Soybeans ticked modestly higher at 1,199.25¢/bushel (+0.42%). Meanwhile, cocoa posted a dramatic session gain of 12.34%, its largest single-day move in recent memory, bringing its weekly gain to nearly 21% — though the commodity remains down 22.54% year-to-date and nearly 50% year-over-year as supply from West Africa normalizes after previous shortages.

What to Watch

• Iran peace negotiations: Any progress — or further breakdown — in U.S.-Iran talks will be the primary driver of oil price direction this week. Trump's "totally unacceptable" comment sets a hawkish tone heading into Monday's session.
• EIA weekly petroleum inventory report: Due mid-week; with record U.S. oil exports flagged as a potential supply risk, all eyes are on domestic stockpile data.
• Federal Reserve communications: Fed Chair Powell faces pressure from both inflation (driven in part by energy costs) and political headwinds. Any signals on rate policy will ripple through commodity markets via the dollar.
• USDA crop progress report: Planting season for corn and soybeans is underway; early condition ratings will set the tone for agricultural markets heading into summer.
• Silver and copper technical levels: After this week's explosive moves, traders will be watching whether industrial metals can sustain gains above key resistance, or whether a profit-taking pullback materializes.