Stock Market Strategy: 관심 종목 대응 Guide
On October 29, 2026, the KOSPI fell 1.24% to close at 5,937.66, failing to rebound after breaking below the 6,000 mark. The KOSDAQ also tumbled 2.34% to finish at 753.23. Despite the overnight rate freeze by the U.S. Federal Reserve, foreign capital outflow persisted due to caution ahead of major tech earnings and negative outlooks from global investment banks. Volatility is expected to remain high tomorrow depending on U.S. big tech earnings results and supply-demand dynamics in the domestic semiconductor sector.
Stock Market Strategy: 관심 종목 대응 Guide — 2026-10-29
Market Snapshot Today
- KOSPI: 5,937.66 (-1.24%, -74.78 pt)
- KOSDAQ: 753.23 (-2.34%, -18.05 pt)
- Supply & Demand: Continued foreign selling (which drove the previous day's 7-month low), with institutional net selling estimated.
- Exchange Rate / Treasury Bonds: Upward pressure on the KRW/USD exchange rate (reflecting foreign outflows), with short-term volatility expanding due to the rate freeze.
- Trading Value: Increased trading volume across both KOSPI and KOSDAQ (volatility expansion phase).
Global Background — Overnight U.S. Market
- Fed Rate Freeze: The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%. There was an unusual dissenting vote of 10 to 2.
- Stock Index Gains: Following the rate freeze news, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average finished higher for three consecutive sessions.
- Treasury Yields Rise: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed as the Fed's signals were interpreted as hawkish.
- Key Events: Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) released their earnings after the market close, setting up expected volatility before the opening of Asian markets.
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Leading Sectors & Themes
1. Semiconductors (Led the Decline)
- Movement: Despite the U.S. tech stock rally, the domestic semiconductor sector remained weak, pressured by foreign selling. Negative reports from global IBs regarding Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix had a particular impact.
- Leaders: Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix — led the index decline with simultaneous weakness.
- Check Points: Analyses showing that foreign investors have recently sold down shares worth around 200 trillion won are adding to supply-demand burdens on large-cap semiconductor stocks.
2. AI/Tech Related Stocks (Mixed)
- Movement: Boosted early in the session by strength in U.S. AI-related stocks (such as news related to Anthropic), but gave up gains during the morning and turned lower.
- Leaders: Platform companies like NAVER and Kakao, along with small-to-mid-cap AI stocks.
- Check Points: Retail profit-taking emerged, capping the upside of the index.
3. KOSDAQ Small-to-Mid Caps (Sharp Decline)
- Movement: The KOSDAQ index plunged 2.34%, recording a steeper drop than large-cap stocks.
- Leaders: General weakness across high-beta sectors such as biotech and entertainment.
- Check Points: A breach of the KOSDAQ 750 line raises concerns over additional program selling.
Stock Response Guide
This guide provides reference price ranges based on brokerage reports and regulatory filings. Investment decisions are solely your responsibility.
Samsung Electronics (005930)
- Today's Close / Change Rate: Estimated weak finish tied to the index decline rate (-1.24%).
- Supply & Demand: Continued net selling by foreigners. Impacted by target price downgrades and sell recommendations from global IBs.
- Fundamental Triggers: Imminent Q3 earnings release. Battle between expectations for rising memory prices vs. concerns over slowing demand.
- Brokerage Target Price / Support & Resistance: BNK Investment & Securities recently lowered its target price from 300,000 won to 270,000 won. Meanwhile, SK Securities maintained a high of 500,000 won, though the market expresses growing concern over the widening gap.
- Risk Factors: 1) Accelerated foreign capital outflow, 2) Concerns over a peak-out in the global semiconductor cycle.
- Response Scenario: Need to verify support around the lowered target price of 270,000 won, and prepare for potential further declines if breached.
SK Hynix (000660)
- Today's Close / Change Rate: Declined alongside the broader semiconductor sector weakness.
- Supply & Demand: Concentrated foreign selling.
- Fundamental Triggers: Persistence of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand and expansion of LTA (Long-Term Agreement) proportions.
- Brokerage Target Price / Support & Resistance: SK Securities maintained its target price at 3,000,000 won, but the recent sharp drop in share price has widened the gap with the average brokerage target price by more than 2x, making an adjustment in expectations inevitable.
- Risk Factors: 1) Potential inventory adjustments by key clients such as NVIDIA, 2) Technology catch-up by competitors.
- Response Scenario: High volatility is expected until earnings are announced, so it is advantageous to stay on the sidelines and respond after checking earnings guidance rather than entering new positions.
Key Events to Watch Tomorrow
- Reflection of U.S. Big Tech Earnings Results: The after-hours earnings results of Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) will be reflected upon the opening of the domestic market. In particular, guidance related to cloud and AI will impact the domestic semiconductor and IT sectors.
- Bank of Korea (BOK) Rate Decision Status: If the Bank of Korea's base rate decision is imminent or has been announced, monitor exchange rate volatility.
- Foreign Investor Trends: Observe whether foreign selling eases or accelerates after the KOSPI breaks below the 6,000 mark.
- Semiconductor Earnings Releases: Market reactions according to the earnings release schedules of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
One-Line Strategy Memo
Despite the Fed's rate freeze, a lack of conviction regarding a "pivot" combined with uncertainties surrounding U.S. big tech earnings has intensified risk-off sentiment. It is safer to maintain cash weightings or approach the market with defensive stocks rather than large-cap semiconductors, while checking whether the KOSPI 5,900 and KOSDAQ 750 lines act as key support levels.
Terminology & Notes
- Supply & Demand: Net buying/selling trends of foreigners, institutions, and retail investors.
- Trading Range (Box Range): Price range formed by 52-week or recent quarter highs and lows.
- Support/Resistance: Actual levels observed in brokerage reports and charts (arbitrary figures prohibited).
This material is a market briefing compiling published news, disclosures, and brokerage reports. It does not constitute an investment recommendation or a guarantee of returns, and all trading decisions and results rest entirely with the investor.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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