Stock Market Strategy: Trading Guide for 2026-05-24 (오늘의 가이드)

Market Snapshot

⚠️ Data Notice: The South Korean stock market is closed on Saturday, 2026-05-24. The figures below are based on the closing prices from the previous trading day (Friday, 2026-05-22) and serve as a basis for Monday’s (2026-05-26) strategy.

• KOSPI: 7,847.71 (+32.12p, +0.41%)
• KOSDAQ: 1,161.13 (+55.34p, +4.99%)
• Market Flow: Continued foreign net selling (12-day cumulative: -45.9 trillion won), with institutional, ETF, and pension fund buying providing a floor.
• Exchange Rate/Bonds: No significant changes estimated compared to the previous day.
• Trading Volume: High activity in KOSDAQ following the surge; relatively quiet in KOSPI.

Global Context: U.S. Markets

On May 21 (local time), the New York stock market closed higher, driven by reports of progress in Iran-U.S. negotiations.

• Dow Jones: Neared a record high, up about 300 points. Reports of a draft nuclear agreement between Iran and the U.S. boosted risk-on sentiment.
• S&P 500 / Nasdaq: Both climbed. The Russell 2000 also rose, signaling a broad risk-on atmosphere.
• Key Headline: Reports of an "Imminent Iran-U.S. Draft Agreement" acted as the primary catalyst. Hopes for lower oil prices eased inflation fears and helped stabilize the bond market.
• Risk Context: Keep in mind this is a rebound after the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit 2026 Q1 highs the previous week, which had caused a 3-day decline for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Leading Sectors & Themes

1. KOSDAQ Small/Mid-Cap Tech: Policy-Driven Rally

• Trend: KOSDAQ index +4.99% (1,161.13) — one of the largest single-session gains in years.
• Leaders: Expectations that 45 trillion won of the 150 trillion won National Growth Fund would be allocated to KOSDAQ high-tech industries spurred an across-the-board rally, led by individual investors.
• Checkpoint: Timing and scale of fund deployment are key. Watch for profit-taking after the "expectation-priced-in" phase.

2. Semiconductors (Samsung Electronics & SK Hynix): ETF Support

• Trend: While the KOSPI rose slightly (+0.41%), large-cap semiconductors were the backbone. ETFs and pension funds offset foreign selling to defend the index floor.
• Leaders: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Brokerages suggest price targets of 430,000–500,000 won for Samsung and 2,750,000–3,100,000 won for SK Hynix.
• Checkpoint: Debate continues between "Memory Supercycle" bulls and those wary of weakening momentum. HBM demand and AI capex are the focus.

3. KOSPI Large-Caps: Foreign Exit vs. Institutional Intake

• Trend: Despite a 12-day foreign net sell-off (45.9 trillion won), the 4.78% index rise proves the structural strengthening of domestic institutional (ETF/pension) demand.
• Leaders: Led by ETF buying, benefiting the overall KOSPI 200 constituents.
• Checkpoint: If foreign selling expands further, ETF support alone may hit its limits.

Trading Guide for Key Stocks

This guide provides reference price ranges based on brokerage reports. Investment decisions remain the responsibility of the investor.

Samsung Electronics (005930)

• Status: Showing defensive strength in the KOSPI via ETF flows.
• Triggers: Labor agreement resolution, HBM3E expansion, and AI data center demand.
• Targets: 430,000 won (support) to 500,000 won (resistance).
• Strategy: Watch for support at 430,000 won in a favorable market. If selling accelerates, monitor for a break below this line.

SK Hynix (006600)

• Status: Trading firm within the semiconductor sector.
• Triggers: Surging HBM demand and AI infrastructure investment.
• Targets: 2,750,000 won (support) to 3,100,000 won (resistance).
• Strategy: Monitor for a move toward 3,000,000 won. Watch for a breakdown below 2,750,000 won if foreign selling intensifies.

KOSDAQ Policy Plays

• Status: KOSDAQ index at 1,161.13.
• Triggers: 45 trillion won National Growth Fund allocation.
• Strategy: 1,161 is a key point to hold. If momentum fades, use 1,100 as the primary support line.

Upcoming Events (이벤트)

• 2026-05-25 (Mon) Morning: U.S. market finish and final status of Iran-U.S. talks.
• 2026-05-25 (Mon) and beyond: Official roadmap for the 150 trillion won National Growth Fund.
• 2026-05-26 (Tue) onwards: South Korean CPI announcement; potential impact on Bank of Korea policy.

This material is a market briefing based on public news and reports. It is not an investment recommendation; all trading decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor.