Market Strategy: Investment Guide for Stocks, 2026-08-01

Today’s Market Snapshot

• KOSPI: 5,593.56 (–69.68 points, –1.23%)
• KOSDAQ: Data not available
• Supply/Demand: Mixed net buying/selling by foreign investors; retail investors recorded net selling of approximately 1 trillion won (as of July 30).
• Exchange Rate/Treasury Bonds: Won-dollar rate hovering near 1,440 won; 3-year Korean Treasury bond yield in the 2.8–3.0% range.
• Trading Value: Declining liquidity in KOSPI-led sectors (volumes shrinking due to heightened volatility).

Global Context — Overnight U.S. Markets

• U.S. Stocks: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed slightly higher (July 30), but losses deepened following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate freeze mid-week (July 28–29) — the Dow fell 1,150 points, its worst performance in 15 months.
• 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield: Hit 4.15–4.20%, the highest level in about two and a half years, as inflation concerns and the possibility of further rate hikes triggered bond sell-offs.
• Oil (WTI): Surging to the $78–$82 per barrel range amid fears of Iranian missile attacks; sustained dollar strength continues to trigger currency weakness in emerging markets (including Korea).
• Key Issue: Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh’s comments regarding "the lack of speed in responding to inflation" have heightened market anxiety, leading to intensified profit-taking in tech and semiconductor stocks.

Leading Sectors & Themes

Semiconductors and Memory Chips (Leading the Decline)

• Trend: Attempting a slight rebound after a 15–18% drop over the last three trading days — however, gains remain limited due to rising U.S. Treasury yields.
• Leading Stocks: SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Micron (ADR impact).
• Checkpoints:
  • SK Hynix: Six brokerage firms lowered their target prices on July 30 (citing product mix deterioration and limited ASP growth due to the early stages of Long-Term Agreements/LTA).
  • KB Securities maintained its target price of 4.2 million won and a "Buy" rating, diagnosing the stock as "excessively undervalued."
  • Double pressure from tech profit-taking and fears of interest rate hikes in developed economies.

Secondary Batteries

• Trend: Briefly caught attention as a play on rising power demand amid the AI boom, but the decline continues due to signs of weakening global demand and instability in raw material prices.
• Leading Stocks: LG Energy Solution, SK Innovation, POSCO Future M.
• Checkpoints: Widespread concerns over slowing EV sales and intensified competition from China are putting pressure on margins; awaiting target price adjustments from brokerages.

Financial Stocks (Performance Expectations + Supply/Demand Volatility)

• Trend: Preferred for their relative defensive returns despite KOSPI's volatility; expectations for improved loan interest margins.
• Leading Stocks: Shinhan Financial Group, KB Financial, NH Investment & Securities.
• Checkpoints: Retail selling (around 1 trillion won) is being offset by institutional and foreign buying; financial stocks may continue to show relative strength if risk-aversion intensifies.

Action Guide for Featured Stocks

This guide provides reference price ranges based on brokerage reports and public disclosures. Investment decisions are at your own risk.

SK Hynix (000660)

• Today’s Closing/Change: Exact closing price for Aug 1 not available (estimated to be in the low 2 million won range following a 15–18% drop over the last three sessions as of July 30).
• Supply/Demand: Institutional/foreign buying beginning to cross; retail net selling continues.
• Fundamental Triggers:
  • Six brokerages lowered target prices on July 30 — HBM demand remains strong, but ASP growth is constrained by early-stage LTAs.
  • KB Securities target price: 4.2 million won ("Buy at low during oversold phase").
• Brokerage Target Prices: KB Securities 4.2 million won / Others in the 2.5–3.2 million won range (as of July 30 adjustments).
• Risk Factors: 1. Increased selling in tech if U.S. Treasury yields break 4.2%. 2. Risk of low-cost product dumping by Chinese memory firms.
• Response Scenarios:
  • Favorable: If the stock rises from the low 2 million won range and breaks above 2.2 million won, observe for a 2.5 million won target (a signal of strengthened institutional buying).
  • Unfavorable: Breaking below 1.8 million won may lead to further downside to the 1.5 million won level; this serves as the threshold for assessing support levels.

Samsung Electronics (005930)

• Today’s Closing/Change: Exact closing price for Aug 1 not available (estimated in the mid-400,000 won range as of July 30, following a 12–15% drop over the last three sessions).
• Supply/Demand: High volatility in foreign/institutional crossing; retail net selling.
• Fundamental Triggers:
  • Strong demand for AI chipsets (HBM), but deteriorating memory product mix and intensified foundry competition.
  • Recent reports of visits to semiconductor plants indicate potential for new DRAM and NAND flash lineups.
• Brokerage Target Prices: Generally in the 500,000–600,000 won range (KB Securities 600,000 won, Korea Investment & Securities 590,000 won, etc.).
• Risk Factors: 1. Potential for Q2 operating profit weakness due to foundry competition. 2. Increased labor and electricity costs combined with Chinese competition.
• Response Scenarios:
  • Favorable: If the stock breaks above 450,000 won from the mid-400,000 range, recovery to a 500,000 won target is possible (institutional buying signal).
  • Unfavorable: Breaking below 350,000 won may trigger further adjustments down to the 300,000 won range; this level acts as the quarterly low.

LG Energy Solution (373220)

• Today’s Closing/Change: Exact closing price for Aug 1 not available (estimated 12–14% drop as of July 30 due to secondary battery sector weakness).
• Supply/Demand: Retail net selling + conditional foreign buying (awaiting re-evaluation of EV demand).
• Fundamental Triggers:
  • Hopes for U.S. EV charging station expansion, but signs of slowing EV sales from the previous quarter.
  • Margin pressure on Korean battery makers due to competition with low-cost products from CATL.
• Brokerage Target Prices: Recent range of 1.3–1.5 million won (latest data as of Aug 1 not yet available).
• Risk Factors: 1. Increased burden of CAPEX if global EV sales growth slows. 2. Rising volatility in raw material (nickel, lithium) prices.
• Response Scenarios:
  • Favorable: If the stock rises from the low 1 million won range and breaks 1.1 million won, recovery to 1.2 million won is expected (boosted by U.S. EV policy).
  • Unfavorable: Breaking below 900,000 won may lead to adjustments down to the 800,000 won range, signaling intensified margin pressure.

Events to Watch

• Aug 2 (Fri): U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) — Time to be determined (likely announced in the afternoon Seoul time). The biggest trigger for market volatility; weak data may ease rate hike fears, while strong data may fuel them.
• Aug 2 (Fri): U.S. Unemployment Rate — Released alongside NFP. If it rises from the current 4% level to above 4.5%, it may signal an economic slowdown and trigger risk-off sentiment in the KOSPI.
• Mid-August: Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Committee — Schedule to be confirmed. If the interest rate is officially kept on hold, it signals no imminent hike, likely leading to sustained won weakness.
• Early August 2026: Korea’s July CPI release — Re-evaluation of monetary policy direction expected after checking inflation trends.

Summary Strategy Memo

Tomorrow, the KOSPI will remain in a risk-off mode, with the break of the 5,500–5,700 trading range as the key observation point. The semiconductor and battery sectors are likely to remain in a readjustment phase until the U.S. NFP data is released. If conditional buying by institutions and foreigners appears in oversold zones (SK Hynix at the 2 million won range, Samsung Electronics at the 400,000 won range), a short-term rebound can be expected. Retail investors are advised to strengthen defensive positions by utilizing the relative strength of financial stocks, or to wait for definite signs of a bottom (such as recovering above the 200-day moving average) before gradually re-entering semiconductor stocks.

Glossary & Reference

• Supply/Demand (수급): Net buying/selling patterns of foreign, institutional, and retail investors.
• Box/Range (박스권): The price range formed by highs and lows over the recent week or weeks (KOSPI 5,500–5,700).
• Support/Resistance: Actual levels observed in brokerage reports and charts (SK Hynix 2 million won, Samsung Electronics 400,000 won, etc.).
• ASP: Average Selling Price of memory chips.
• LTA: Long-Term Agreement between chip suppliers and customers (provides price stability, limits short-term ASP increases).

This material is a market briefing summarizing public news, disclosures, and brokerage reports. It is not an investment recommendation or a guarantee of profit. All trading decisions and results remain the investor's responsibility.