Today's Stock Market Strategy: Watchlist Trading Guide — 2026-10-05

Today's Market Snapshot

• KOSPI: Reclaimed the 7,000 level (upward trend over the past 3 trading sessions, higher compared to the previous day)
• KOSDAQ: Fluctuation in the 88–90 range recently (consolidating after a 5-day winning streak)
• Supply & Demand: Foreign net selling deepens (20.3 trillion won net sold over the past month, with 85% concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix), institutional net buying (signaling high-price buying)
• Exchange Rate / Treasury Bonds: Upward pressure on the KRW/USD exchange rate continues; long-term bond yields are trending downward in response to weak U.S. employment data
• Trading Value: KOSPI daily trading volume maintained in the mid-2 trillion won range

Global Background — Overnight U.S. Market

• Weak employment data drives relief sentiment: U.S. September nonfarm payrolls came in at 29,000, falling far short of market expectations (around 100,000), while figures for the previous two months were also revised downward, making economic slowdown signals tangible. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.
• Bond yields rebound, stock rally: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield retreated from recent highs (above 4%), weakening the long-term interest rate hike scenario. The Nasdaq hit an intraday record high, led by a rally in mega-cap tech stocks like NVIDIA.
• Lower probability of rate hikes: The market has scaled back expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, with some even raising the possibility of discussing rate cuts at the upcoming FOMC meeting in November.

1 sources

schwab.com

schwab.com

Leading Sectors & Themes

Top Priority: Semiconductors — Persistent Target of Foreign Selling

• Movement: Heavy foreign selling concentrated in large-cap stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix (accounting for 85% of cumulative net selling over the past month), with sector-wide weakness continuing.
• Leading Stocks: Samsung Electronics (005930), SK hynix (000660) — focused on continuous foreign net selling, with institutional support forming a price floor.
• Checkpoints: Whether the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breaks above or below the 3.8–4.0% range. Potential for additional downward pressure if the KRW/USD exchange rate breaks past the 1,200 won level.

Priority 2: Tech & AI-Related — 'Hedging' Against U.S. Nasdaq Strength

• Movement: While the Nasdaq hit record highs, domestic tech stocks showed relative weakness due to foreign investor avoidance. Domestic AI investment news was released but remained suppressed by foreign selling.
• Leading Stocks: Large-cap tech stocks and non-semiconductor IT firms — institutional buying signals exist, but gains are limited by foreign aversion.
• Checkpoints: Observing the deepening divergence with the U.S. Nasdaq and whether a stronger exchange rate (weaker Korean won) shifts conditions to favor overseas earnings beneficiaries.

Priority 3: Rate-Sensitive Stocks (Finance & Real Estate) — Beneficiaries of Falling Treasury Yields

• Movement: Domestic financial and real estate stocks showed relative strength following the decline in U.S. long-term bond yields. However, there is a risk of concurrent weakness during the foreign "mass exodus" phase.
• Leading Stocks: Bank and insurance stocks — beneficiaries of the rate-cut scenario, though institutional supply and demand alone are insufficient.
• Checkpoints: Bank of Korea rate decisions (if scheduled) and whether the 3-year Korean Treasury yield stays above 3.0%.

Watchlist Trading Guide

This guide provides reference price ranges based on publicly available news and disclosure data, and investment decisions are solely your own responsibility.

Samsung Electronics (005930)

• Today's Close / Change: Continued weakness centered around foreign net selling (exact closing price must be verified via the exchange)
• Supply & Demand: Concentrated foreign net selling (over 85% of the past month's selling concentrated here), institutional net buying (acting as a support pillar)
• Fundamental Triggers: While there are signals of improving semiconductor supply and demand, foreign investors are avoiding the stock due to a weak exchange rate and concerns over a slowdown in the overseas economy. Q3 earnings are expected to miss expectations.
• Brokerage Target Prices / Support & Resistance: Resistance forming around the recent 52-week high of 360,000 won, with a support line around 270,000 won. Brokerage target prices are mixed in the 270,000–360,000 won range.
• Risk Factors: ① Additional downward pressure if the KRW/USD exchange rate breaks the 1,200 won level ② Intensified foreign exodus due to worsening U.S. economic signals.
• Trading Scenario: In a weak trend, observe whether institutions can provide a floor below 300,000 won; in a favorable trend (stabilized exchange rate + U.S. rate cut signals), a retest of the 330,000 won range is possible.

SK hynix (000660)

• Today's Close / Change: Concurrent foreign selling pressure alongside Samsung Electronics (exact closing price must be verified via the exchange)
• Supply & Demand: Foreign net selling (accounting for 85% of the 1-month cumulative selling), institutional net buying (purchasing at higher prices)
• Fundamental Triggers: Positive factors include rising memory prices and improved ROE (forecasted to rise 66% from 2026–2028) driven by expanded long-term supply agreements (LTAs), but the stock is weighed down by massive liquidity outflow pressure from foreigners.
• Brokerage Target Prices / Support & Resistance: Recent average upward assessments around 2,300,000 won, forming a 52-week trading range between 2,000,000 won and 2,800,000 won.
• Risk Factors: ① Continuous foreign selling leading to deteriorating liquidity ② Resurgence of oversupply concerns for memory chips.
• Trading Scenario: In an unfavorable trend, a deeper slide below 2,200,000 won is possible; in a bullish trend (U.S. rate cut signals + improved memory supply/demand), a return to the 2,500,000 won range is expected.

KOSPI 200 Leading Large-Caps (Finance & Energy Sectors)

• Today's Close / Change: Sectors outside of semiconductors showed relative stability, with diversified buying signals from institutions.
• Supply & Demand: Selective foreign avoidance (concentrated on semiconductors), institutional cross-buying (signs of weight shifting toward financial and real estate stocks).
• Fundamental Triggers: Falling U.S. 10-year Treasury yields led to a relative rise in dividend attractiveness for domestic financial and insurance stocks.
• Brokerage Target Prices / Support & Resistance: Financial stock evaluations range from 0.8–1.0x PBR, requiring the 3-year Treasury yield to stay above 3.0%.
• Risk Factors: ① Spread of the foreign "mass exodus" leading to concurrent weakness ② Insufficient profitability improvements if the Bank of Korea delays its rate decision.
• Trading Scenario: If rate cut signals become clear, financial stocks will continue their strength; if institutional buying momentum weakens, a retest below the 6,900 level is possible.

Key Events to Watch Tomorrow

• Korean Economic Indicators: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases scheduled (check Statistics Korea announcements for exact timing)
• Additional U.S. Macro Signals: Release of FOMC minutes or scheduled remarks from key Federal Reserve officials (expected during October)
• Corporate Earnings Season: Q3 earnings announcements kick off in earnest (centered on financial and semiconductor stocks)
• Exchange Rate & Bond Closing Lines: Whether the KRW/USD exchange rate breaks above 1,200 won, and continued observation of the 3-year Korean Treasury yield staying above 3.0%.

One-Line Strategy Memo

Since over 95% of foreigners' 20 trillion won net selling trend has concentrated on semiconductors, tomorrow's key factors for defending the KOSPI 7,000 level are ① the clarity of U.S. rate cut signals (strengthened if the 10-year yield falls below 3.6%) and ② the strength of institutional support. Amid unstable supply and demand, defensive weight is shifting toward non-semiconductor financial and energy stocks, and preparations must be made for an expanded foreign selling scenario if exchange rates (based on the KRW/USD 1,200 range) worsen further.

This material is a market briefing compiling public news, disclosures, and brokerage reports. It does not constitute investment solicitation or profit guarantees, and all trading decisions and results rest entirely with the investor.